Saturday, May 1, 2010

Working on a Building

News today from the Ottawa organization that the club is likely to tinker with their roster over the summer. Sens have some monstrous cap problems and saving a million or two on a deal might have appeal. From an Oiler point of view, acquiring Jason Spezza might help fill the hole at 1line C and allow the team to draft Taylor Hall.

Some of the names Edmonton might be interested in aside from Spezza (7M cap hit through 2015) and Chris Neil (2M cap hit through 2012). Ottawa has previously expressed strong interest in Dustin Penner (4.25M through 2012), Andrew Cogliano (1.1M, rfa) and Ladislav Smid (1.3M) with men like Ales Hemsky (4.1M through 2012), Shawn Horcoff (5.5M through 2015) and Sheldon Souray (5.4M through 2012) also likely available.

If Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor comes to Steve Tambellini and says Hall is the man, would the Oilers GM then considering a package of players to Ottawa in exchange for Spezza? Would a signed Spezza and Taylor Hall be a good foundation for this team's offense moving forward? What would it cost? And what if the pricetag included Sam Gagner?

72 comments:

  1. I would deal Sam Gagner in the right circumstance.

    However, that circumstance does not include dealing for Jason Spezza.

    The idea of a Hall-Spezza-Hemsky, MPS-Gagner-Eberle top six is intriguing, without question. As such, I'd consider the deal if it could be done for Horcoff plus Cogliano.

    However, in all honesty, I'm lukewarm at best of Spezza and would rather draft Seguin and go forward with a younger (and cheaper) stable of kids (Seguin, Gagner, MPS, Eberle) supplemented by three quality veterans (Hemsky, Penner, and Horcoff) over the next three seasons.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Short translation of my earlier post: no whale hunting, please.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I don't get to watch too many Sens games but I have never been overly impressed with Spezza's game. He always seems to be operating outside the contact areas but I don't know enough of him to have an educated opinion. Apparently, he has played a more physical game this season and Clouston has him playing a more aggressive style than he's played in the NHL. I would veto a Spezza deal but I don't think I have that option within the organization.

    ReplyDelete
  4. uuugh wouldnt we have to deal horcoff in any spezza deal.could be very hard to do

    ReplyDelete
  5. Such a move would go against the message that the Oilers' so-called management just provided to the fan base. Getting Spezza does not sound like the bottom-up rebuild of Pittsburgh / Chicago.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Interesting article from David Staples at The Cult of Hockey

    Following the success of the 2006 cup run and all of the profit generated from so many home playoff games, Kevin Lowe dismantled not only the team, but the system.

    He traded top ranked journeyman for minor leaguers and low paid prospects. He outright released vets to drop the payroll.

    Then he proceded to blow up the farm system. Read the article at the link, all the stated fears happened.

    Now Lowe was probably doing this under orders from the Edmonton Investors Group, and I place the blame for this mess with them.

    They took the profits from 12 home playoff games and re-invested $0 back into the club, and then dumped salary/players and blew up the farm.

    The following years they trot out the "we're competitive line" and convinced the fans that they were still going to be able to compete.

    No wonder they sold out to Katz. The gold mine had been plundered and left bare, the golden goose was cooked, the parrot had died.

    So to answer the original question, no, please don't sign any high priced short term help.

    It took a long time to screw this club up so badly, and its going to take a long time to fix it.

    There has been lots of talk about following the Detroit model, or Colorado model, Chicago mode....

    Follow any other teams model please, because the Edmonton model they developed truly sucked.

    How about something novel like developing a five year plan and determining who the core of that plan will be. What players will be there and how are they going to get there.

    Because thats how long it will take to fix this mess.

    ReplyDelete
  7. "We're surviving it for now. It's going to be painful," General Manager Kevin Lowe said last month, before the player assignments were made. "There's an incredible amount of work to be done, keeping tabs on everyone. We run the risk that proper development of some players is not going to happen."

    ReplyDelete
  8. The Oilers need to re-establish the core. That includes players like Gagner, Eberle, MPS, and Hall/Seguin, Whitney Gilbert at the backend. If Spezza comes in, he becomes the fire hydrant in the middle of the lineup, not exactly a way to build a team. This team needs a cheaper, more vet like, shorter term option, one that can fill the need better than Spezza could.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Spezza has a no trade clause. He isn't coming to Edmonton.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Spezza has a no trade clause. He isn't coming to Edmonton.


    Thank god.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Great teams invariably suck, and are too young, then they eventually get it and dominate.

    Islanders, Penguins, Nordiques, and Hawks in particular come to mind.

    Teams that try to rebuild "on the fly" from nowhere, like the Flyers or Leafs, invariably make a few conference finals, then return back to the abyss.

    Gagner for my money is close to Spezza at the same age. Oilers won't win jack for the next 3-5 years anyway, which makes chasing the big names totally redundant.

    If they start trading away good young players for older ones, it spells out in hundred foot high letters that this team is going nowhere ever.

    ReplyDelete
  12. If I were GM would trade Moreau, Nilson, and Sullivan for Spezza and Oiler fans would love me.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Spezza could be a good deal. He's a quality, big, first line centre and Edmonton could rid itself of some contracts and free some roster space.

    He's slightly younger than Penner, Whitney, and Gilbert.

    He could provide shelter for Gagner, Seguin for the next few years. He could resign for less if the Oilers are any good at that point.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Spezza's NTC doesn't kick in until July 1, IIRC.

    ReplyDelete
  15. "wouldnt we have to deal horcoff in any spezza deal.could be very hard to do"

    That's what I was thinking. 12.5 million per year for the next 5 years would be impossible. Hemsky and Penner would definitely be gone and we would be scratching the barrel to pay Mangus and Seguin/Hall.

    Unfortunately no team is going to trade for Horcoff's contract so it kills pretty much any deal.

    Horcoff is making 6.5 million real money per season for the next 4 years. Even if Horcoff is healthy that's 3-4 million in dead money and then you have to factor in that he can no longer stay healthy or win draws and doesn't have the speed that he had in 2006. Even Steinbrenner wouldn't take that contract on.

    We're stuck with him for the next 4 seasons. The only question now is how management deals with their mistake. Do you give him all the cherry minutes with Hemsky or Penner that should belong to Seguin/Eberle/Hall/Magnus and focus on making his contract look half respectable or do you bury him on the 3rd/4th line and take it on the chin?

    ReplyDelete
  16. I'd love Spezza on the Oilers, and would definitely consider a Penner + Cogliano exchange.

    Gagner + Cogliano is definitely something you consider as well.

    Spezza's a player folks.

    ReplyDelete
  17. if Spezza's NTC kicks in on July 1st, they would have to trade him at the draft, but would we be sending Gagner or whoever to the Sens for a guy who maybe doesn't want to play here, and maybe plays a year here, then wants a trade?

    ReplyDelete
  18. "Jason Spezza will have a no-trade clause starting on July 1st. There will probably be some trade rumors on whether or not the Senators will trade Spezza before then, but GM Bryan Murray isn't about to feed the flames. "I'm not even going to go there. I don't think this is the time," Murray said. Spezza comes with a $7 million cap hit through the 2015-16 season. He got off to a rough start this season, but he scored 18 goals and 38 points in his final 30 regular season games. He also scored a goal and registered six assists in six playoff contests."
    - Ottawa Citizen


    Can he play as tough as Datsyuk or J.F. Jacques?....Pass.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Traktor,

    Only you would call the toughest minutes on the team "cherry" and suggest its being done to make his contract more respectable.

    If Hemsky is on the ice, then 1st D pairings are coming out against him such as Regehr/Bowmeister, not to mention good forwards as well.

    Not exactly a place to throw a rookie or 2nd year player.

    Even LA kept Kopitar away from Cammelari so he wouldn't be up against the best D pairings.

    Whoever the Oilers take, along with the other rookies that make the team should be no where near Hemsky.

    Hemsky not being an Oiler in the fall will probably make that easier.

    ReplyDelete
  20. "I'd love Spezza on the Oilers, and would definitely consider a Penner + Cogliano exchange.

    Gagner + Cogliano is definitely something you consider as well.

    Spezza's a player folks."

    Nasty.

    Which makes more sense?

    Signing Volchenkov for 5 million and then trading Penner and Cogliano and maybe something else for #2

    or

    Trading Penner and Cogliano for Spezza

    Spezza + Hall

    or

    Volchenkov + Hall + Sequin

    That's an easy decision folks.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Traktor - I'm not seeing how you get Hall and Seguin

    ReplyDelete
  22. "If Hemsky is on the ice, then 1st D pairings are coming out against him such as Regehr/Bowmeister, not to mention good forwards as well.

    Not exactly a place to throw a rookie or 2nd year player."

    Common sense tells us that Penner faced top pairing D all last season.

    Yet every player played better with Penner than without.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Boston just isn't going to trade the #2 pick. it just ain't happening!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Especially not without Hemsky and a young prospect (Eberle, MPS) being part of the deal. Would probably have to take back something we don't want as well.

    ReplyDelete
  25. "Boston just isn't going to trade the #2 pick. it just ain't happening!"

    It was just an example.

    Trading away top assets for someone making UFA money is stupid when you could just as well trade those assets tor fill another need and then sign a UFA yourself.

    ReplyDelete
  26. if we are going to have 3 rookies in the lineup, wouldn't it make sense to spread them out and pair them with vets? I know some people like a sheltered kid line, but Quinn doesn't line match, and will probably go with his rolling 4 lines thing.

    MPS-Gagner-Hemsky
    Penner-Seguin-Brule
    Pouliot-Horcoff-Jones
    Stone-Potulny-Eberle


    Spreads out the experience. The top 2 lines have great skill and potential, and size and grit are on our bottom 6 with some skill sprinkled in. I'm OK with this lineup, with Stortini and one of Nilsson/O'Sullivan/Cogliano able to fill in. i expect Moreau and 2 of those 3 gone in the off season. And if he's playing well you can slide Eberle to 2RW or 1 LW (he's played both wings).

    ReplyDelete
  27. I like Spezza. A lot.

    But I don't think he fits on this team, unless Horcoff's going the other way. And then the Oilers need to add another checking centre.

    I'm content to wait on Gagner, who will be a player.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Traktor:

    You mention "3-4 million in dead money" when you talk about Horcoff's salary.

    What exactly do you refer to there? The cummulative value over the course of those four years?

    Because if you're calling him overpaid by that much per season, sorry, but you're out to lunch.

    At worst, he's overpaid by a million a year in terms of cap hit (which is the number that matters most in these discussions). Hence why Horcoff's deal is nowhere near as crippling as Moreau, O'Sullivan or Nilsson, since those guys are all making at least a million too much in terms of cap hit for what they bring to the table.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Hbomb: I'm sorry?

    How the hell is 33 points and -29 worth 4 Millions?

    It's worth 1. It's a crippling 4,5 Millions.

    Nilsson is much closer to covering the bet than Horcoff.

    ReplyDelete
  30. If you are not watching Boston and Philly in overtime right now - you should be it's nuts - one of the crazyiest OT's I have seen with crazy chance after crazy chance...

    Terrible defence, but awesome to watch.

    ReplyDelete
  31. "You mention "3-4 million in dead money" when you talk about Horcoff's salary.

    What exactly do you refer to there? The cummulative value over the course of those four years?"

    If he was a UFA this year he would be lucky to get 2.5-3 million dollars.

    He's making 6.5 million real money right now.

    That's 3-4 million in dead money right there.

    GM's from other clubs don't care what the market was when Horcoff signed the deal. They care what his value is today and what the market is today.

    ReplyDelete
  32. fpb: Sorry, but how the hell is one (albeit shitty) season representative of a player's true value?

    Shawn Horcoff is a hell of a lot better of a player than what just the 2009-10 stats show. This is a stone-cold fact. He's worth a hell of a lot closer to 5.5 million per season than 1 million per season.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Traktor,

    There is no question that players would play better with Hemsky than without as well.

    My concern is be that their development would be better served with easier competition (the true cherry minutes), and that their presence on a line with Hemsky instead of Horcoff would have poorer results for the team.

    Seguin may add scoring if played with Hemsky, but a reasoned guess is that they would allow even more.

    The rookies need to succeed in the roles they are given, and they simply couldn't succeed in a tough minute role. Few real NHL players succeed in those roles, let alone rookies.

    ReplyDelete
  34. If he was a UFA this year he would be lucky to get 2.5-3 million dollars.

    He's making 6.5 million real money right now.

    That's 3-4 million in dead money right there.

    GM's from other clubs don't care what the market was when Horcoff signed the deal. They care what his value is today and what the market is today.


    This makes no sense to me. First off, you're combining cap hit numbers and salary. Second, one season where a guy not performing up to his standard, combined with numerous other circumstances working against him, don't sewer a player's value downwards like that.

    Furthermore, your "what if" scenario doesn't cut it. If Horcoff went to UFA last summer, when he was scheduled to, even coming off a 51 point season, no way in hell does he get a cent less than 4.5 million on the open market.

    A very good player had a very bad year. It's not the first time it happened, and it doesn't suddenly mean he represents 4 million in "dead money".

    ReplyDelete
  35. What a game in Boston - Savard wins it in OT - good for him.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Bruins win in OT. Marc Savard and Daniel Briere (I believe) were born in the same year and have had somewhat similar career paths.

    They're not spring chickens but I don't know if they've ever played better than these last couple of seasons.

    Great game, this could be an outstanding series.

    ReplyDelete
  37. hbomb:

    How much do you think Horcoff would sign for if he was a UFA this year?

    It absolutely matters.

    Opposing GM's will compare Horcoff with what they can sign via free agency.

    Malhotra signed last year for 700k. Moore signed for 1.1 million. Madden signed for 2.75 and Pahlsson signed for 2.65. Koivu signed 3.25 and Morrison signed for 1.5 million.

    Who in the world is going to pay Horcoff 6.5 million real money over the next 4 years when they can get a comparable player for a fraction of the cost?

    Cap number is important but the fact that Horcoff's contract is front loaded hurts his value even more.

    ReplyDelete
  38. it was a hell of a good OT for sure! way to go Boston.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Traktor: cap hit matters most. As does what you can expect to get from the player.

    One bad season aside, a GM signing Horcoff as a UFA right now would expect 50-60 points plus the ability to play the toughs and come out ahead.

    Even right now, he'd get 4 million minimum. NHL GM's may not be geniuses across the board, but they're not so dull as to think one season is representative of what a player brings to the table.

    Besides, working in what-ifs is pointless. They signed Horcoff for 5.5 million cap hit when one could argue maybe he was only worth 4.5-5 million at the crime. An overpay of 500k-1M per season is not as big a deal as giving an oft-injured UFA goalie 15 million over 4 seasons and then pinning your team's hopes on him, for example.

    The contract isn't a perfect deal by any stretch - but this team has bigger problems in terms of "dead money" (Moreau, Souray, O'Sullivan, Nilsson and Khabibulin, to name five).

    ReplyDelete
  40. Cap number is important but the fact that Horcoff's contract is front loaded hurts his value even more.

    This goes against conventional wisdom so perhaps you can explain.

    If the cap hit is set at $5.5 a year, why is it a negative that he will cost less for a team to take him on? How would he be more attractive if he cost more?

    ReplyDelete
  41. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  42. While I'm too lazy to look up the advanced stats for Spezza as a 20 year old, his boxcars and size set him apart from Gagner. I think Spezza gets too little respect from fans and I think the 'should use his body more' crowd would be well served to look at Derek's bit on power forwards over at C&B.

    Spezza is listed at 6'3", 215lbs and in his first full season in the NHL (at 20), he scored 22G, 33A and took 71PIMS in 78GP. Now, he did play for an impressive Ottawa team (Hossa, Havlat, Alfredsson, Chara, Redden before he sucked, Bondra at the deadline), but was only one of four players on that team to score 50+ pts. The team had 262 GF (the league leader!). Gagner (5'10", 190lbs) as a 20 year old (his 3rd NHL season), scored 15G and 26A is 68GP for a bottom-dwelling team that scored 214GF.

    Maybe you're all staring at that and saying, "see, they are close! Give Gagne a winger like Martin Havlat and see what happens" To clarify, Spezza scored 90 points in his third professional season (one in the AHL due to lock out) in those same 68 games! He was third on his team (due to injury), and the player in 4th (Peter Schaefer - the team was less stacked) had 50 points. So Spezza (admittedly as a 22 year old) scored 40 more points than anyone on the second line of his team. That is to say, is his 3rd season, Spezza scored the total number of points Gagner got in his 3rd season MORE than anyone on the second line. And he was part of the line that lead them to a league leading 312 GF and first in the East.

    If in two years Gagner scores at a 1.3 pts/game pace, I'll eat my hat. There's a reason Spezza got his 7mil contract besides Murray being a 40watt GM. Yes, I love Gagne and want him to stay and develop. And no, I don't want whale hunting. Also, if Gagne had played with Heatley and Alfredsson, he'd have more points. And if Spezza were in Edmonton he couldn't lift weights over his head in the training room, which might have impacted his development. Still, Spezza (MUCH)> Gagne.

    Also, he's 26. Since the lockout he's scored 399 pts in 353 games. Hemsky, for example, is also 26 and has scored 289 pts in 313 games.

    A flawed case for Spezza, I recognize, but the best this lazy man is going to produce on a Saturday.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Would a Hemsky-Spezza straight swap be good for both players and both teams? Ottawa knocks off nearly 3 million in cap space, Oilers get the better player. A spine of Spezza-Gagner-Horcs-Poo down the centre for the next 3 years would be a good for all our yound wingers to develop around. All four seem to be good down-to-earth pro's who would set a good example for the babies.
    Plus, I think a Hall-Spezza-Penner top line would get us all a little hot under the collar next year.

    ReplyDelete
  44. "This goes against conventional wisdom so perhaps you can explain.

    If the cap hit is set at $5.5 a year, why is it a negative that he will cost less for a team to take him on? How would he be more attractive if he cost more?"

    Horcoff is making 7, 6.5, 6.5, 6 the next 4 seasons.

    How do you figure that is less than 5.5 million?

    ReplyDelete
  45. No one would sign Shawn Horcoff if he was UFA at more than 2,5.

    You don't expect 60 points + tough domination from a guy with 33 points and -29.

    Well that is unless you have an Ales Hemsky of extra of your team.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Fvb,

    I wouldn't expect those results again unless you had an extra JFFJ and POS on your team.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Horcoff is due to make 6.5, 6.5, 6, 4, 3 for the rest of his contract(he just got 7 for last season). I doubt he's tradeable until the last 2 years of his contract or if he completely rips it up next season.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Woodguy: Point conceded. But fact is, no team in the whole NHL would play Shawn Horcoff with theyr PPG man. (Or best player).

    And 5,5 isn't worth a 2nd center.

    Shawn Horcoff is way past overpay.

    Oh and i think Spezza is good. Just that he's too soft to surivive in Edmonton.

    ReplyDelete
  49. "Even right now, he'd get 4 million minimum. NHL GM's may not be geniuses across the board, but they're not so dull as to think one season is representative of what a player brings to the table."

    I don't think he would get that type of money. He was the 3rd highest scoring center on the worst club in the NHL and to make matters worse he can't stay healthy.

    I think the offers would be closer to 2.5-3.0 million but even if he did get offered 4 million that would be 3 million dead money in 2010, 2.5 million in dead money in 2011, 2.5 million in dead money in 2012 and 2.0 in dead money in 2013.

    10 million dollars total in dead money over the next 4 seasons and IMO it would be closer to 14 million in dead money.

    That's a ton of real money to be throwing away that could be used on many things including scouting and development.

    ReplyDelete
  50. ''Even right now, he'd get 4 million minimum. NHL GM's may not be geniuses across the board, but they're not so dull as to think one season is representative of what a player brings to the table.
    ''

    LOL! 4 Millions? Geez. Forget it.

    Saku Koivu was signed at 3,25.

    ReplyDelete
  51. No one would sign Shawn Horcoff if he was UFA at more than 2,5.

    That's an awesome assertion, given that Samuel Pahlsson got a 2.65 MM contract last season despite never hitting the 30-point plateau and coming off an 18-point season in which he was minus-17.

    But you can guarantee us that Shawn Horcoff, who had more points in this, his worst season since the lockout, than Pahlsson ever has in his career, would be paid less than that by every single one of the 30 NHL general managers.

    As I said, it's an awesome assertion, although probably not for the reasons you hope.

    ReplyDelete
  52. JW: Did i guarantee anywhere?

    Stop the pick'n'choose.

    Okay let's set the Bar at 3M$ instead.

    Pahlsson's contract still sucks.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Well we're up to 3M now. Do I hear 3.2M? :-)

    ReplyDelete
  54. JW: If we also pursue in your logic, i guess Strudwick can expect a good 4M$. Since Jeff Finger signed at 3,5 with 92 NHL games played.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Not to sound like a Don Cherry - ite but don't you have a concern about paying $7 million a year for the next 5 years for a #1 center who is a pussy?

    If your concern is to make the playoffs he likely will get you there, but I just can't see him putting a team on his back and going to the promised land.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Ducey: Just so we're clear, this is not my preference. I'm interested in what the group feels. I think the Oilers should stay at #1, draft the better man and then make small improvements over the summer.

    Then repeat the following summer.

    ReplyDelete
  57. FPB: When you say "No one would sign..." that sounds a lot like a guarantee. You didn't say "I don't think..." or "It's not fair value..." you said "No one would..."

    I interpreted that as meaning you were sure not one NHL G.M. would sign Horcoff to more than 2.5MM. And I figured that was ludicrous, for the reason I gave.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Also, FPB: Atlanta offered Malhotra four years at 2MM/per. Chicago signed John Madden to 2.75MM/yr, coming off a 23-point, minus-7 season (second worst plus/minus on the team in 2008-09).

    I'd argue we could establish the 2.0MM - 3.0MM range as fitting shutdown centres with negligible offence.

    If you figure Horcoff as a 50-point guy with similar shutdown abilites, it only makes sense that his contract would be north of those of Madden, Pahlsson and Malhotra.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Plus the fact that the Oilers have a Grand Canyon-sized hole at C (with really only Gagner on the way although I do hold out hope for Vande Velde, Nash and others).

    ReplyDelete
  60. Willis:

    Madden and Pahlsson are better defensive players imo. They're more of defensive specialists while Horcoff is more of a utility player.

    Brendan Morrison and Saku Koivu are the best comps for Horcoff imo.

    Morrision signed last year for 1.5 million and Koiva signed for 3.25 mullion.

    I think if Horc would get somewhere in the middle.

    ReplyDelete
  61. I think the Oilers should stay at #1, draft the better man and then make small improvements over the summer.

    Then repeat the following summer.


    Ditto

    ReplyDelete
  62. i have trouble thinking of it as whale hunting, because given the current situation, Penner and Hemsky's contract lengths just don't fit. 2 years remaining while in the middle of a long rebuild? they're not going to stay, so they'll have to be traded at some point. why not start the rest now?

    we could give up Hemsky for him, and get a better player of the same age, with a longer contract. he wouldn't be going anywhere anytime soon, and get a quality *center* while developing wingers like Hall and MPS.

    or we could give up Penner and Cogliano to get him, and be in a similar situation.

    i think the major difference between those and the proposed Heatley deal of last summer is that we wouldn't give up any defense, and fill the hole at center rather than picking up yet another winger.

    another option is trying to trade Horcoff and Hemsky for Spezza, or Horcoff and Penner for Spezza. i'm curious to see what people think about those options, if anything.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Would it be crazy to propose Brian Campbell + 1st for Souray?

    ReplyDelete
  64. Schitzo:

    That basic idea might make some sort of sense, depending on return. But the Oilers would need much more than a late 1st as a sweetener IMO, to make such a deal.

    ReplyDelete
  65. I would think a deal like Campbell's would come with a NTC, therefore unlikely to happen.

    But I like the way you think.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Funny topic of discussion. Cosh and I screwed around a little while ago to see if we could come up with something unsophisticated to predict NHL salaries for UFA. We were using four variables - age, pts/82 over the past three years, Selke votes and a dummy variable for whether or not a guy's a funny. Oddly enough, given that NHL types would have you believe that they're factoring in all sorts of crazy stuff, those four variables explained something like 72% of the variance in salaries, which is really good. We just did it with one year's data, but it was pretty interesting.

    The model came up with $3.6MM for Horcoff, IIRC. There's some caveats - we just used the 2009 data, which is a bit troublesome - that was after the cap turned stagnant and, obviously, with more deals, it'll change a bit.

    There's no doubt that the Oilers overpaid for him relative to the market, as far as I'm concerned. If what we saw last year is what he is, the contract is a disaster. There's a lot of good reasons to think that that isn't really what he is - most importantly, there's the fact that he had a terrible year with the percentages.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Canucks fans up here in Fort McMurray proving Derek Zona's writeup to be correct - celebrating winning game 1 of a second round series as if you've won the Stanley Cup is a pretty clear indicator that no, you HAVEN'T been to the end-zone before.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Jason Spezza is a completely useless hockey player. He is
    1) softer than butter.
    2) injury-prone (perennial back problems)
    3) grossly overpaid.
    4) dumb as a doornail.

    Jason Spezza is a bigger Robert Nilsson.

    I thought we all agreed. No effing whales, especially dead ones like Spezza. And Tambellini promised to do things right.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Godot: His skillset is pretty much a copycat of Ales Hemsky.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Spezza is soft. Hemsky is NOT.

    Spezza has no chance of being value for money, since he is already paid $7 million, and you to pay him that for fiver more years.

    Hemsky is exceptional value for money for the next two years, even if you have to trade him next summer.

    Gagner will give the Oilers a very similar player with stronger character at at value for money (probably).

    I hate and despise Spezza less that I used to, but I don't see how one can ever contend with him.

    For guys you pay elite money, you have to be able to see them as being able to lead a team to a Stanley Cup. Spezza is NOT that guy.

    That, plus, as I;ve bloviated often, hardly any teams who win Stanley Cups are built around imported whatles. They are built around home grown whales.

    Tambellini promised to do things right. Spezza is NOT doing things right. No effing whales. Do a proper rebuild.

    ReplyDelete
  71. 2005-2006 Senators 68 19 71 90 23 33 7 0 5 156 12.2 2006-2007 Senators 67 34 53 87 19 45 13 1 5 162 21.0
    2007-2008 Senators 76 34 58 92 26 66 11 0 6 210 16.2

    I'm okay with seasons like that at 7M$.

    Plus how is he not a leader in playoffs? He's PPG.

    ReplyDelete