Friday, June 25, 2010

2010 Post Rd 1 Thoughts
















This is Tyler Pitlick. He is probably the best player available from the 2010 draft pool as teams head into the second and final day Saturday. The first round was a roller coaster after the first three picks (Jackets surprised with their pick of Ryan Johansen at #4) and by the end of the first round there were a higher than normal number of top 30 projections on the outside looking in.

What does that mean for tomorrow? Probably more off the board picks. A few things Oilers fans should keep in mind:

  1. Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor is building a very nice track record in the second round and beyond. It is perhaps under appreciated since he's kicking the daylights out of the first round.
  2. The Oilers usually start doing the wacko "draft for need" stuff in the third round. Knuckle-draggers and tall trees start coming out of the woodwork along about pick #70.
  3. The Oilers may get a terrific offer for #31 and they should look at it. The NFL's Philadelphia Eagles put a high value on the first pick on Day 2, feeling it gave all of the teams a chance to review their lists and mull over trades and opportunities. Their position at the top of day 2 may have a benefit.
  4. Redline-a notorious hard marker-likes Pitlick a ton: “Accelerates briskly out of cross-overs and blows by defenders. Has an NHL caliber shot right now. Flashed the ability to power through defenders to get to net. High energy level every shift. Can gain separation in corners with sharp twists and can turn on a dime. Patient playmaker. Long-limbed with farmboy like strength. Aggressive and finishes checks.”
  5. Steve Tambellini has added a forward and now has about 19 guys up front who are either signed or restricted. Culling the herd up front has been a difficult task for the Oilers since their Stanley run (never a problem on the blue since they don't have enough players) and they also need to offload a goalie some time soon.
  6. The NHL players who might move tomorrow: Souray, Moreau, Nilsson, O'Sullivan, Cogliano, Dubnyk, Deslauriers.
  7. Fringe NHL players who might move tomorrow: Jacques, Potulny.
  8. Prospects who might move tomorrow: Riley Nash.
  9. The most likely picks tomorrow: Coke Machines, goalies, dirt-mean defensemen with one eyebrow.

54 comments:

  1. MB will make a name for himself tomorrow after the craziest first round I can remember in a long while. The future is bright for the Oilers

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  2. I doubt anyone moves tomorrow.

    Pitlick would be my choice, but there's plenty of valid arguments in that range.

    Anyone could've drafted the players MBS has in the first round. It's his other rounds that will be the evaluating factor for me.

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  3. I vote Ross, Pitlick, or Petrovic.

    All three would be a good pick

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  4. I've heard reports that they wanted to move up to get both McIlrath and Tinordi, so (if true) it's pretty clear to me what the Oilers want with their next pick, and that they're going need early. Petrovic fits the bill there, and someone was saying they heard the liked Beukeboom too, but I think they can get him later. They want size and competativeness, and that makes Pitlick a real possibility too.

    Personally it's between Brad Ross and Stan Galiev (maybe if I call him Stan, they might not notice he's Russian) for me.

    I also like Martindale, and if they've soured on Nash (or vise-versa), they could take a similar player in Ryan Martindale.

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  5. And I've got to echo spOiler here. I don't see Edmonton moving any of those bodies tomorrow.

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  6. Oh, I don't know. The MPS pick involved two other players EDM was looking at very closely and he made the call on the Swede. Driving around today I heard a clip (don't remember where) saying some of the TOR scouts were livid the Leafs passed on him.

    Eberle was certainly a good value where he was taken.

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  7. //I doubt anyone moves tomorrow.//

    Yeah, if anyone's expecting an impact move tomorrow it'll probably happen sooner rather than later when it'll be mostly depth moves...........failure to qualify and buyouts to look forward to before free agency.

    Everyone having a day to evaluate after the flurry of the first round is definitely a benefit but those two big centers and Petrovic are looking pretty good too.

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  8. TSN mock redraft:

    +2 Duchene
    E Hedman
    -2 Tavares
    +2 OEL
    +1 Ellis
    -2 Kane
    -2 Schenn
    +6 Kulikov
    +1 MPS
    -3 Kadri
    -3 Glennie

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  9. Couple of problem children first:

    Merrill is a D and the higest rated guy on Mackenzie's list left.

    McFarland is a fallen angel like Motin and Cornet were.

    Ross is the F version of McIlrath and probably rode in Nino and Johansen's wake. RLR said after the top prospects game 'Nasty little prick was tough to play against.'

    Pitlick or Toffoli are the safe pick and a C.

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  10. Ross has been compare to Steve Ott.

    This team hasn't had a true agitator in YEARS.

    Petrovic fits the coke machine-unibrow D part

    Pitlicks a bigger C


    Then there's the Gambles

    McFarlane, Merril, Kabonov

    IMO it's too early to gamble on questionable character guys

    Go safe at 31. Gamble with Nashville's pick

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  11. does anyone else find it funny how much better a player in the top 50 seems once 30 of them have been scratched off the list? good thing there's only 12 hours to debate TylervsJohnvsAlexvsBrad

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  12. Good Point Vince. Only 12 more hours to make a second best choice

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  13. Anaheim gets #5 Fowler @ #12 and #17 Etem @ #29.

    Good day for them. Shit.

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  14. itsaleaf, agreed. pick from:

    C: Pitlick
    W: Ross
    D: Petrovic

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  15. @ Deano

    I'd say they had the best round.

    Would have said Phoenix it they had taken Etem and not reached for the Goalie.

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  16. Tallon: GUDBRANSON, BJUGSTAD, HOWDEN

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  17. Part of me worries they'll take Pickard at 31.

    I'd be happy with Pitlick as well. RH Centre with size? Ok with me.

    Merrill might be worth a shot at 31. ISS has him at 11 overall, but he's a bad egg off the ice.

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  18. So we're looking at:
    31 Pitlick - one who fell from the scrappy talented forward tree.
    48 MacKenzie - a young Gilbert Gilbert.
    61 Leach - from the one-eyebrowed school of dmen.

    That's not a bad start to the day.

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  19. Isn't it pretty fair to say that the Oilers had the best round 1?

    I mean all of these guys with lesser results but great UPSIDE are just so awesome and cool and sexy but at the end of the day you win with good players.

    And the Oil got the best of this draft class.

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  20. dirt-mean defensemen with one eyebrow + Patirk Nemeth. Please. number 48 OV.

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  21. Pitlick is committed to Medicine Hat next season and that could be the difference.

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  22. debakey, is Gilbert Gilbert a super-human hybrid of Tom Gilbert and Gilbert Brule?

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  23. I look at the draft as value.

    Yes Oilers got the best player (as they should at 1)

    Anaheim gets a top 5 guy and a top 20 guy at 12 and 27. That's the best VALUE

    Gormley at 13 is incredible Value

    Yes Florida has three good young players, but those guys were slotted pretty much right where they were rated.

    Anahiem wins on Value(well POTENTIAL value)

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  24. Does anyone really trust Slats to lay off Kabanov?

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  25. Value doesn't matter a whit unless it helps you win games.

    Good players with cheap contracts help you win games. More specifically, cheap contracts let you employ other good players who will in turn help you win games.

    But getting players who are outside the "sure thing" range of the draft, well you can attach all the value you want to getting them outside their consensus draft position - but it doesn't matter a whit because the reasonable expectation is that the sure things will help you win more games.

    Anyways that's what I found so baffling about both the chatter here about trading up to the mid-first rounds AND trading down to "put more bullets in the chamber".

    It's like the draft is some sort of baseball card collection.

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  26. Its, Trallon turned Horton into BJUGSTAD and an extra 2nd round pick. Lots failed to get a second 1st round pick.

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  27. TSN's James Duthie mentioned on their post round 1 wrap that the Oilers had a done deal to take McIlrath with the 15th pick but the deal became moot when Sather took him in the 10th slot.

    Good call LT. You nailed that one.

    Good ol' Slats. He just couldn't resist another opportunity to screw with an Oiler draft.

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  28. How about we try for another Hemsky and take Petr Straka at 31? Then with our next pick we could go for his coke machine linemate Jakub Culek. Straka is one of the most exciting players to hit the Q in quite some time, fast, smart, heady. Culek is really big, young, and has flashes of offensive genius.

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  29. linnaeus - I like them both, but think we can get them them #48 and #61.

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  30. Whew. So thankfully Sather is a bigger gambler than we are. Count me as one that is thankful we didn't waste #15 on McIlrath. There were many good players available at 15, as expected. McIlrath at #10 was sheer lunacy. I'm glad he's not our GM anymore.

    I am pleased with the lack of dealing today, although I would not have minded being on the receiving end of a great D prospect to shuffle around positions in the draft. I think all GM's tend to overpay for draft picks at the draft fair. Everyone looks like an up and coming superstar in the first round for some reason...maybe too much hype. Reality always sets in 6 months later.

    I would love to get Pitlick, but I think we see a big blueliner at 31 tomorrow unless someone makes us an offer we can't refuse.

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  31. Tallon has to grade the highest of the GMs after Day 1. Adding 5 current or former first rounders to his team for Nathan Horton, Keith Ballard and a Coke Machine. That's a good day's work.

    Worst performance by a GM? How about Brian Burke telling James Duthie with a straight face that he pondered the prospect of the Kessel trade costing the Leafs a Seguin or Hall pick and was ok with that worst case scenario if it came to pass? First Rask and now Seguin. Wow, the bad kharma from the Pronger debacle has truly bitten him in the ass.

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  32. Hemsky on a Czeching line?

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  33. Sather: I think we should use our next pick to take the Russian head-case with big-time skill. I mean, what's the worst that could happen?

    Ranger Scouts: Ahhh, Slats...

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  34. If we took McIlrath @ 15 while Bjugstad and now Watson were still available I'd have been upset.

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  35. To clarify, I know Burke didn't trade Rask but it's got to be galling to him having to deal with the impact of that decision now.

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  36. "dirt-mean defensemen with one eyebrow."

    Nice..

    After watching Petrovic get beat in by McIlrath, (youtube) he doesnt stand out as filling the same hole (he does, but doesnt ~ ya know?!)
    I dunno, very small sample size - but...

    I like the sounds of this Pitlick, just weak defensively but will have time... nice wheels, physical goal scorer, 6'2'' - f'ya..

    Brad Ross, unless this team picks up Scott from minny I dont really wanna see anymore munchkins running around playing light-middle weight without any back up,.. he could be good, but you can only have so many middle-weights with limited offense

    Just thinkin aloud.. Either way, trust in the MB...

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  37. The first player of interest I looked at in compiling my list of likely second rounders is still available. I'd be taking Merrill in a heartbeat. Honourable mention to Tyler Toffoli.

    When does the second round begin tomorrow? I couldn't find any useful information off NHL.com. Someone please help. I don't want to have booked the day off work to oversleep and miss round two.

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  39. I'm not surprised Kaberle didn't get dealt. Burke would rather a top 6er than a pick...maybe tomorrow for a player and pick.

    If he tries to wait 'til after July 1st he might get burned. I can already imagine the Cox article on how Kaberle is guaranteed to put the Leafs in the playoffs next year;)

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  41. dorito,

    1pm ET...nhl network...see you there lol

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  42. That late eh? Fuck. I booked the day but not the night off.

    Now I'm pissed.

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  43. late?...where are you? that's 10am in Edmonton.

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  44. Looking into Tallon's moves.

    Out:

    Horton #3/2003
    Ballard #11/2002
    Oreskovich #55/2004
    Campbell #67/2002

    In:
    Grabner #14/2006
    #15/2010
    Bernier #16/2003
    #25/2010
    ~#75/2011
    Wideman #241/2002

    Not the value people think. He gave up the best player in both trades, but got younger quality back for the most part. Wideman is probably also movable @ <$4M/year for 2 more years.

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  45. LT-

    Thanks for all your work posting prior to and during the draft. I just want to throw out that Cogliano may not be the right guy to excise with Renney at the helm...unless the payback truly fills a need. That kid has skills that weren't used properly last year.

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  46. Henry: I agree. Cogliano looks lost but part of the reason EDM was so high on him was his intelligent play. He's not stupid, so maybe he needs another teacher. Renney might be just what the doctor ordered.

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  47. Hmm..

    MPS-horc-Hemmer 1st Pvp
    Penner-Cogs-Brule 2nd Pvp?!
    Hall-Gags-Eberle Sheltered
    Jones-Fraser-Storts or something

    Is that another small-esque, very young team?! does it stand a chance?!

    So many other names (bottom 6), so few spots, at this point..

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  48. @Oilmanaic

    Firstly I'll admit that I am very, very biased, but I think you have Petrovic underrated because he took a beating from a larger, tougher dude. It takes a lot of testicular fortitude to step up to a guy like that, especially when all your teammates are running scared. As ON would put it AP is ballsy. I've also had the pleasure of watching the kid a fair share of times, he doesn't lose a lot of fights, so that's not something you should be worried about.

    But aside from his physical aspect Petrovic is also a good leader, and perhaps most importantly a good player. He was constantly out against good players and was one of the only guys in the 'Dub to be able to contain them consistently.

    Petrovic is a player, and if drafted could very well be our best D prospect. I hope the Oilers take a flier on him.

    But then again... I'm biased.

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  49. If their ordering a doctor for Cogs the doc should sit him down him down and say "look man; you're skill set says you're a winger, deal with it"

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  50. Sounds good Alon,
    Thanks for the more seasoned, albeit biased, opinion..
    If he is the man (31st), then I'll be glad to cheer him on in the coming years...

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  51. First Rask and now Seguin.

    Rask was Ferguson's fuck-up.

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  52. My choice would be Pitlick.

    To slide without character, size or skating issues seems to good to be true. Right hand centre? Really?

    Is it reasonable to suggest the 'good at everything but not great at anything' concern may be largely because of the league he was playing in at a young age?

    Wasn't that the MPS story last year?

    Line-up the gronks in order with the Nashville pick and our 3rd's... but at #31 - Pitlick is a great choice.

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  53. What's your take on Merrill? McKenzie says he is very talented but has had off ice issues and did poorly in the interviews. Does anyone have anymore insight? Immaturity or a true problem child?

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