Tuesday, December 14, 2010

#18 Prospect: Brandon Davidson

Winter 2009: NR
Summer 2010: NR

Winter 2010: #18

Years ago, the Oilers paid Kenta Nilsson to drive his SAAB around Europe looking for prospects. Frank Musil would join in when he could get the Lada Hitschmanova going ("56 Sparks Street") and throughout the KP era Edmonton drafted obscure Euro's.

From Alexei Mikhnov to Jesse Niinimaki and Mikhail Youkov and beyond, the Oilers plucked kids whose photos were not available to the Hockey News for their draft issue (Mikhnov), whose scouting reports were barely available on the Al Gore (Niinimaki) and whose names had more correct spellings than Carter has pills (Zhukov, Youkov).

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The current Oilers procurement group--led by Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor--prefer North America and specifically the WHL. Here are the Oilers draft trends since MacGregor took over in time for the 2008 Entry Draft:
  1. WHL 7 (Eberle, Hamilton, others)
  2. Sweden 3 (MPS, Lander, Motin)
  3. QMJHL 3 (Roy, Cornet, Blain)
  4. OHL 2 (Hall & Martindale)
  5. Finland 2 (Hartikainen, Rajala)
  6. BCJHL 2 (Bigos, Kellen Jones)
  7. USHS 1 (Hesketh)
  8. NCAA 1 (Pitlick)
  9. Slovakia 1 (Marincin)
  10. Belarus 1 (Pelss)
That's 23 picks; 52% of MBS's picks come from the CHL (30% WHL; 13% QMJHL; 9% OHL) with the Swedes and Finn's making up 21.7% of the group (Swede's 13%; Finn's about 9%). It's a huge change in direction from the KP era, with US high schools, the USHL and NCAA all losing their previous appeal to the organization.

The results of the Oilers attention to the CHL have been impressive so far. From Hall to Eberle to Hamilton and beyond, the organization has done their homework in their own back yard and the results are impressive.
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  • Mike Remmerde/Redline Report: I usually like late bloomers who come out of nowhere, but this guy's skating bothers me too much. Has big trouble with pivots. But he's got really good hockey sense and is a very good puck mover. Probably goes way higher than I like, but if somehow he lasted until the 5th round, I might be interested. (Note: Oilers took him in the 6th round).
  • International Scouting Services: Davidson was listed by the Pats after last seasons Mac's Midget Tournament. He has not missed a beat and has added some offensive flair to the Pat d-core. He moves the puck very well and is a key contributor to the PP. He has great mobility and vision with the puck. He has made an easy and smooth transition from Midget AAA to the WHL. Not often is there an 18 yr old rookie who has the impact that Davidson has had this season.
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Davidson did have some knee problems a year ago, but the scouting reports above (puck mover with decent size: 6.02, 194 now) give us a nice idea about him. Stu MacGregor after the draft: "We were looking for a puck mover, and Davidson certain is that. We were surprised he was there, he's a talented kid. He did have an injury problem with a knee just after Christmas; we feel he has a legitimate chance to be a solid guy for us in our organization."
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He ranks 5th in WHL scoring among defenders and is having a fine year compared to last season:
  • 09-10: 59gp, 1-33-34 (.576) 37pims +15
  • 10-11: 33gp, 5-22-27 (.818) 32pims -4
The Pats are 70-106 at even strength this season (-36) so if Davidson is playing average minutes at even strength (and the Pats roll three pairings) his plus minus should be -12 (and it's -4). Last season, his +15 came on a team that was -11 overall, so he's no stranger to a strong plus minus.
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Since they're in the same league, I thought it might be an idea to compare Davidson with Martin Marincin. When are they scoring points? Are they posting impressive EV numbers? What about the PP?
  • Marincin's boxcars: 32gp, 9-24-33 (1.03)
  • Davidson's boxcars: 33gp, 5-22-27 (.818)
  • Marincin's EVs: 32gp, 3-10-13 (.406)
  • Davidson's EVs: 33gp, 2-14-16 (.485)
  • Marincin PP: 32gp, 6-14-20 (.625)
  • Davidson PP: 33gp, 3-8-11 (.333)
Marcincin's PP number is a very good one, Davidson's no slouch either. Both of their EV numbers are solid, I wouldn't take too much from Davidson's superior number. Defensenen don't drive the bus at Evs and three points in 32-33 games is covered by luck at least once.

I like Davidson a lot, his numbers are impressive. One thing that stands out: Marincin has had a hand in 20/30 PP goals for his team. I don't know if that's sustainable, but it stands out. I had to check it twice. Not really about Davidson, but there you go.

48 comments:

  1. Don't sell out lowetide or people will start to think you are MSM.
    (on a real note: if you do, 10%? haha)

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  2. I have no problem with Frank posting his site in the comments section once or twice. But he posted the wrong address.

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  3. Regina has been outscored at ES by a margin of 12-to-4 over the last two nights, and Davidson some how came out of that even.

    He is the only Pat to come out of both games even, and by all accounts, is taking a healthy share of the minutes.

    I'd say that's probably a good sign.

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  4. I love Davidson's story.

    Dirt poor from Taber and really couldn't afford to play hockey at rep team level until midget AAA, and I think that was only for a year.

    So really this is only his 3rd year with professional coaching.

    Wacky +/- follow this kid around, he could be a gem for a 6th rounder.

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  5. Ah, little correction on my last post.

    Something called a Tyler Borstmayer managed a plus rating in both games in spite of the fact that he seems to be allergic to points.

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  6. I'm beginning to worry Cameron Abney isn't in there. What a shame.

    Fun thing I think if Hesketh was travelled back in time he would make the list just for the sake of being big. (The evolution of prospect bank, not your judgement)

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  7. Ah to go back to the days where the 18th best prospect in the Oiler system would have 14 goals and 19 assists in 65 games at age 19 and we drafted him as a scorer.

    The Oil would say something like--- "he had some problems with his teammates". Yeah like they were just as bad as the guy we drafted in the 3rd round.

    Sometimes wondered if the Oilers scouts had a real job and never actually went out on the road to scout prospects

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  8. Does he have any grit to his game?

    I like grit.

    Jeremie Blain up next?

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  9. The Other John: I believe they would have done better if they relied solely on stats.

    They went to the games, they just sucked at being scouts.

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  10. Hahaha wow I didn't know South Korea had a hockey league... Ohhh Brock

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  11. Dear Webmaster,

    Keep doing what you're doing.

    Thanks!

    Brett

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  12. Let's remember that some of those obscure Euros worked out, though. Denis Grebeshkov, Dan Hejda, Jussi Markkanen, and Ales Pisa arrived in different ways but all were nice pieces. All had a lengthy pro track record too.

    It was the one-shot tournament wonders that killed the Oilers in those years.

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  13. And, just thinking out loud here, I wonder if that's been one of the key changes. IIRC, the Oilers Euro decisions were made with input from all the scouts, and the only place KP's bevy of North American scouts saw the Euros was at the tourneys.

    Perhaps part of the problem was a resultant over reliance on tournament results, rather than on performance over full seasons in players' respective leagues.

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  14. Jonathan: Well they traded for Grebeshkov and Hejda, so we're talking about Markkanen and Pisa through the draft. My suspicion there is that pro scouts like Morey Gare would have been involved.

    I think the Oilers wasted a lot of picks in the 2000's (and early ones) because they got excited at tournaments when seeing them good.

    Textbook draft idiocy.

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  15. What's with all the SPAM coming in? Did Lowetide get mentioned in the SpamGazette recently?

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  16. flamingpavelbure said...
    Also LOl at Brock Radunske.


    You mean superstar and current reigning season and playoffs MVP of the Asian Super League Brock Radunske?

    Note that Bryan Young is now on the same team as Brock...I think he has a shot at the best defenseman there.

    Nothing like a pair of 6'3" 210lb players in a league of 5'6" men who all have day jobs.

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  17. Correction, Young apparently is on a different team now.

    Brock "Canadian Big Beauty" Radunske is the reigning:
    League Champion (Team)
    Regular Season MVP
    Playoffs MVP
    Best Forward
    Point Scoring Leader
    Goal Scoring Leader

    He was recently signed to an unprecedented 3 year contract with his team, after leading them to their first championship, and first ever by a non-Japanese team.

    Added bit of fun: "While playing for Anyang Halla, he earned new nickname "Canadian Big Beauty" (Korean: 빙판의 꽃미남) from Korean fans because of his dorable look."

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  18. Does anyone have an opinion on why the Islanders are so bad (1 win in last 20, 5 on the season)? Will they ever relinquish last overall?

    Rollie's numbers are outstanding considering he has 2W-12L. From my limited perspective it appears they can't score goals. Any other ideas out there?

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  19. Psyche they're a young team with a lot of holes. They don't have a lot of veteran presence, or defensively aware players at any position, and that includes defense. Add to that the very real injury problems they have to some of their best young players and that's all she wrote.

    It'd take a Hasek calibre goalie to prop that team up.

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  20. Brock "Canadian Big Beauty" Radunske is the reigning:
    League Champion (Team)
    Regular Season MVP
    Playoffs MVP
    Best Forward
    Point Scoring Leader
    Goal Scoring Leader


    Well, Brocko's accomplished everything he's set out to do then. I guess all that's left now is to retire from midget wrestling and spend the rest of his days sitting trackside with Jason Bonsignore with a big tub of ice cold Michelob Ultra.

    Does anyone have an opinion on why the Islanders are so bad

    Yea, I think it has something to do with their horrible roster. Seriously..take a look. Their highest paid player is Alexei Yashin and he doesn't even play for them.

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  21. Yea, I think it has something to do with their horrible roster.

    No doubt. I'm sure anyone who remembers how epic that team was in the early '80s will agree that it's maybe the saddest story in hockey right now. They have Mike Bossy as VP of Corporate Partnerships? He should be running that show, not Garth F. Snow.

    Poor Tavares. I've never looked, but his Twitter updates probably have a lot of "FML" and "WTF" in them.

    Congrats to Roy and Hamilton. Anyone know if they've said if Roy will be the starter?

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  22. Lada Hitschmanova

    Nice one.
    Quality humour.

    Just commercials in those days,
    imagine an hour-long Unitarian Service Committee infomercial!
    Oi.

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  23. Phil said: "They have Mike Bossy as VP of Corporate Partnerships? He should be running that show, not Garth F. Snow."

    Mike Bossy's name should be be in the argument over who's the greatest goal scorer that ever lived, but I'm not sure this singular talent conveys any definable ability to manage a budget, negotiate contracts with lawyers, read or understand an increasingly complicated CBA, and manage coaching and scouting staffs.

    This is not to say Garth Snow's dubious puck-stopping ability made him any more qualified, but at least the guy has an MBA. Either way, it's safe to assume Mr. Wang has more money than sense, and has possibly been putting his finger on the scales of some franchise-defining decisions.

    Not to jump on Phil, but I'm a little fixated on managers for jobs involving a complicated series of tasks with more in their CV than Came Up Through The System, Paid Their Dues, and A Good Guy To Go For Beers When The Club President Has Had A Long Day.

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  24. OT,

    Omark seems to be of the Eberle mold, seems dead calm under pressure. Once behind the net ragging it waiting for someone to find white ice and receive a pass, which of course they don't, 13 battling in the crease. Look Busy!

    And later he's walking the blueline and moving the puck smartly. NHL game #2 and the light is on. I don't care if he's a smurf, he seems a hockey player and god knows we can use some.

    Nice surprise.

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  25. NYI are in the midst of a long rebuild, which truly started after Milbury was gassed and they flirted with the playoffs for 2 years.

    They have a lot of good young prospects, lots of good young players that are learning on the job, and only a few long term contract sinks...heh.

    They'll be good soon enough, and I think Garth Snow has done a decent job so far as GM.


    Alice, that's exactly what I think when I see Omark. He has some adjusting to do but the guy is a slippery little blighter.

    The play that crystallized it for me was that sequence where he kept the puck in the o-zone with Penner for what seemed like a solid minute.

    Linus was dipsying, doodling, and being outmuscled by the Leafs defenders, yet every time he was denied a lane driving to the net he recovered the puck somehow, then when he was challenged behind the net, in what looked like a one sided physical battle where he lost the puck, he somehow managed to get his stick on it and get it back to an open point to keep the play alive.

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  26. I notice the Oilers picked a fair number of "old" players in the 2010 draft. 4 out of their 5 picks in the top 3 rounds are guys that are old enough to play in the AHL next season, and even Marincin is eligible despite being a younger player.

    I wonder if that is just a coincidence or if it is something of a shift in draft policy. Perhaps going for older, more polished prospects that may have a bit less room for growth, but more chance of plugging into the NHL roster quicker to backfill the roster with cheap depth when the current top guys like Hall, Eberle, and MPS start getting paid.

    Something to keep an eye on in next year's draft possibly?

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  27. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  28. Omark seems to be of the Eberle mold, seems dead calm under pressure.

    I have been very impressed with his work from the centre line in to the offensive line. I keep watching to see him display the same ability in the defensive zone, but he is more invisible there. That is where he will determine if he is better than a SO wonder and PP specialist. But I think he is adjusting to the big league exceedingly well, especially with how well he plays with 27 or 91.

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  29. Mr. deBakey and I may be of a similar vintage. I have actually seen the office of the Unitarian Service Committee on Sparks St.

    Sadly, I donated nothing despite Miss Hitchmanova's entreaties, which aired pretty much every day iirc.

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  30. @Bohologo:

    I haven't a clue if Bossy would make a better/worse GM than Snow, I just liked him a lot as a kid...

    I would argue, however, that a business mind takes a backseat to a hockey mind when a team goes looking for a GM. I'm sure that TB will hire all the accountants and lawyers that Yzerman needs to run their team, as long as he makes good hockey decisions.



    Elsewhere, I was trying to find news on Marincin making the Slovak team, and found this from the team website (via Google translate):

    Slovakia traveled through Vienna and Toronto in the USA with fifteen players, eight more to their team to join up overseas. They include goalkeeper Juraj Holly, Martin Marinčin defenders...

    Guess that means he's in (no surprise).

    I am surprised Pitlick didn't even get to try out for team USA.

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  31. The problem with the Isles is clear:

    Injuries (Okposo + Streit AKA the only good defenseman)

    It's like loosing Whitney and Horcoff for the season. Exept they don't have an Hemsky.

    And lack of depth on D (Well lack of any D's)

    They still somewhat possess a good crop for top 6.

    (Nielsen, Moulson, Comeau, Schremp, Tavares, Parenteau) They need someone to step up and lead tough

    And some good support guys (Grabner, Weight, Hunter).

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  32. I love how the finnish goalie is a black guy goaltending in Chicoutimi (Q)

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  33. Yea, I think it has something to do with their horrible roster. Seriously..take a look. Their highest paid player is Alexei Yashin and he doesn't even play for them.

    ~Good thing the Oilers would never do anything like that~

    The reason the Islanders suck is "Mad" Mike Milbury. Luongo and Jokinen for Kvasha and Parrish? Overdrafting DiPietro over Gaborik and Heatley? Yashin for Chara and and what turned out to be Spezza?

    It irks me that he is part of the media with geniuses like Doug MacLean and Bill Waters. Guys that have proven they know nothing somehow get the right to comment on how others should do things.

    Snow has had some mis steps along the way (DiPietro for 15 yrs!) but they do have some solid pieces.

    As bad as the Oilers have been since the glory years, man it would suck to be one of the 11,000 Islander fans left on the planet. Not only did Milbury destroy them with crazy moves, they had Don Maloney who was disaster as GM. They were bought in '96 by John Spano who turned out to be a fraud. And now they have Wang who at first interefered in the hockey business and now looks like he may bail over losses and an arena fight.

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  34. Ducey: I just laugh everytime Milbury criticise someone on TV.

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  35. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ekH2zovSEIE#at=20

    KHL brawl: The biggest fucking joke ever. Basically Vityaz trying to kill every player Avangard had.

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  36. FPB, that's exactly the reaction I have whenever either of Mike Milbury or Doug MacLean get overly critical of any NHL team executive.

    "Said the ocean to the drop of water"

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  37. Looks like FPV got nothing done at school today.

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  38. Smarmy: At least it's not on the job. Semester's over LOL.

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  39. Done by the 15th? That's crazy. Kind of awesome too.

    And posting from work is the right of every overworked and underpaid Canadian out there.

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  40. And posting from work is the right of every overworked and underpaid Canadian out there.

    And it is also why we are less productive than every nation including the Swedes.

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  41. Dear Webmaster,

    I am guessing that Frank is the pseudonym for a wealthy Chinese businessman who employs child labourers to fake signatures on knock off sports memorabilia.

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  42. Heard Perdergrast on Stauffer's show today.

    Every time Bob asked a question Kevin's first answer was the guy's height and weight.

    When asked why RNH didn't make it his response was "Well he's 160lbs and we went with a guy who is 210lbs"

    It was just like watching the Oilers draft the coke machines again.

    He may have a point about size as its a tourney full of 20 year olds, but I got a feeling the WJR team will be long on grit and short on polish.

    He said something interesting about Hamilton. He said he's not "great" at any one thing, but thinks the game better than most on the ice and is always in the right spot and doing the right thing with the puck.

    That was music to my ears. I imagine a larger, more offensively gifted Pisani type to patrol the LW on Lander's line in a few years.

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  43. Well it's a tournament of 19 year olds but your point stands.

    And you have to take everything Perdergrast says with a grain of salt because he's incompetent.

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  44. This Davidson guy is exactly the kind of flyer we should be taking in the later rounds. Plenty of upside for his draft position and the opportunity cost is nearly zero.

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  45. Smarmy: Majoring in Communications rock. Basically no exams and mostly projects. So you can just put them earlier in the basket for longer breaks.

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