Saturday, July 16, 2011

Red Line





If the Oilers draft RNH, how likely is he to play this year with Hall and what is the upside of that duo?

Wednesday June 22, 2011 12:43 Scott

12:47 Red Line: I would really prefer to see the Oilers use him for only the allowed nine games in the NHL before sending him off to Team Canada's World Jr. squad, and then back to junior for the second half of the year. That way he could get his feet wet, see what it takes to compete on a nightly basis at the NHL level, and come back stronger and more physically ready the following season. I think trying to rush a 163-pound kid into full-time duty in the NHL only serves to hinder his development in the long run.

42 comments:

  1. Also, it must have been cold out when the pic was taken.

    In any event, I think the 9 games + WJC + back to junior (preferably following speeds' Oil Kings route) would be ideal. Let him grow into his frame and give him more playoff experience.

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  2. Tambellini has been hinting that's what he wants to do for some time. But Stauffer keeps talking about RNH making the team from camp. Hard to say what's going to happen, but I hope that they let RNH take whatever development path he needs to become truly great, and not just another also-ran.

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  3. Too much has been made of Nugent-Hopkin's weight. How much did Kane weigh in his rookie season? Did that prevent him from having an excellent rookie year?

    No, I think if Nugent-Hopkins gets sent back, it will be for hockey reasons, not because he's skinny.

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  4. RNH is going to be a day by day guinea pig to see whether or not he makes the club. I can see both sides, on why he would and why he wouldn't.

    - He sticks with the big club because he game does translate smoothly and he finds some chemistry with someone.

    - He gets sent back to junior because he is still slight and can't handle the rigors of playing against NHL players. He is also left standing when the chairs are taken away.

    It will be interesting to watch how RNH and how his game translates. As opposed to Hall who was a slam dunk as soon as he laced them up.

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  5. I really hope RNH doesn't play past 9 games. The team is already very young and unless this kid IS the next Gretzky, neither he or the good ol win loss record would benefit. Hopefully Lander is ready, Hartikainen seemed to be.

    Playing him with 4 and 14 against the softs would have its ups and downs but getting back to what Woodlief said, its not whats best for his development, or 4 and 14' imo. I still think 89 4 14 would be deadly against the softs and 5x4.

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  6. It will be interesting to watch how RNH and how his game translates. As opposed to Hall who was a slam dunk as soon as he laced them up.


    He was no slam dunk on this blog. LT a few others and I were fighting tooth and nail during the first 9 games trying to convince others that he looked like he belonged.

    As for RNH... No way does he go back because he's too light or too skinny.

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  7. Bra and panties has Gagner and Petry off to Columbus for Bogo. VV and Lander fighting it out for last C spot.

    That's the kind of trade that makes a lot of sense to me although I'd rather give up something other than Marincin, Klefbom, Musil or Petry.

    Bogo allows us to cover the 3rd pairing RHD spot with a leftie rather than doing it higher up the pairings. A much safer strat. He's the perfect age for the cluster and someone else has put up with his initial growing pains. It's a lot to give up, but it does add a lot more balance to the roster.

    Gagner has 2C written all over him. Maybe 1RW. We can cover the 2C bet elsewhere over the next couple of years, RW is already covered. But a guy ready for top 2 pairing work in the near future is nowhere to be found. It's going to take a trade and it's gonna take value going the other way.

    This is one of those rumours I hope is true. Make it so.

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  8. Spoiler:

    I'd be furious. Bogosian has red flags all over him. Serious injury at a young age and early regression.

    Columbus?

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  9. I must admit tough I'm still a bit curious.

    His underlying numbers show he's been pressured a lot for no reason.

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  10. I am not in favour of giving up Petry in the deal. Need to substitute Petry for a pick or a lesser player like Chorney

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  11. Any Dman that is available via trade will likely have Columbus chasing him as well. The Oilers and Columbus have very similar assets that other teams might covet.

    We have Gagner, they have Brassard.
    We have Petry, they have Moore.

    It might come down to preference or which team deals add the sweetener.

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  12. Kane: was 18 years an 10 months old when he went in the NHL. 172lbs
    scored 2.5ppg in the CHL

    RNH will be 18 year and 5 months old
    170lbs 1.5ppg

    2.5ppg and 1.5ppg weight, age AND 3/5THS THE PRODUCTION IN JUNIOR.

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  13. Send him down?

    *flips through Hall arguments*

    "When was the last time a 1st overall pick was sent back to junior!?!?! You are going to poison the well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

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  14. I think Petry is a significant player to give up in addition to Gagner (who I think is rightly pegged as a 2C going forward) - RD, has been tracking well, has a lot of different tools, has stayed away from injuries. I think he will be a solid #3 or #4 that is the perfect age for this young core so you are adding upside but also adding risk.

    I'd prefer something like Gagner, Teubert, and a 2013 second rounder.

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  15. I agree with the sentiments on Petry. He has nice tools, tracking alright, homegrown. But I do think other team would be eyeballin' him and he could be the difference in a deal going down.

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  16. Gagner and Plante would work for me.

    I'm afraid it may take Petry however because I bet that other teams would be asking for Bogosian as well.

    Maybe the org feels that if they can add Bogo to the top 4 they can afford to wait a 1 or 2 years before they need Klefbom and the rest to push for minutes at the big league level.

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  17. If there's a bidding war to win that's one thing, but Gagner really should be enough on his own to get Bogo. We've all seen so much of Gagner that it's easy to think we know what he's going to be, but the fact is that the guy is 9 months older than Eberle. There's still just as much potential there with him as there is with Bogosian.

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  18. Call out to AsiaOil:

    If you still have the link to that man with the formula for predicting NFL quarterback future success i'd be glad to have it.

    Thanks.

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  19. please please let him develope one more year. It will be the best thing for Oilers and best thing for RNH. How often is it said that one more year in junior ruined him? And then ask how ofetn is it said going straight to the NHL ruined him? Its a no brainer.

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  20. MacT about to sign as HC of Chicago Wolves.

    Paging Hunter and Traktor....

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  21. Why would you page me?

    MacT can't find a HC job in the NHL.

    Who knew?

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  22. Woody G - *clap*

    2.5ppg and 1.5ppg weight, age AND 3/5THS THE PRODUCTION IN JUNIOR.

    That is pretty damning. I'm really hoping we're not getting too worked up about this kid. The pressure on him to be immediately successful seems huge.

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  23. I'm impressed with Woodguy's pager.

    (Assuming that one pages somebody using pagers, which would make sense linguistically, but I somehow have it in my head that one actually used a phone.)

    Bustruti? Yes.

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  24. FPV - can't remember the site i was looking at but the dreaded wikipedia has multiple links under wonderlic

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  25. I know the CFL season doesn't really start till Labour Day, but I am really impressed with this team. They were methodical today. Methodical. That's a term reserved for NFL clockeaters. Ray's efficiency is thru the roof, the team is executing like a swiss watch, the offense is well planned and called, the running game is to weep for, Stamps is lightning in a bottle, I just can't believe it. I don't know if this good feeling comes from being freed from the Garden Gnome effect or what, but I like this team as much as any since 1982.

    Tillman is a tough guy to like. Besides the extra-curricular history, I've never found him to be that nice a guy in person. But fuck what an amazing evaluator and acquirer of talent. He undid the damage Maciocca incurred in no time. Kavis is an absolute joy. Giving the celebration the smackdown was old school cool.

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  26. If they give rnh his 9 games and send him back - his entry level deal will expire the year horcoff's cap hit disappears. Of course our merry execs cant seem to plan more than 1 week ahead let lone 4 years - but it would be good to consider this unless we want the full chicago model that involves disemboweling the roster when the young guys need to be paid.

    As for gags/petry for bogo - the basic deal is solid but you probably want to try sub plante for petry as others have said. Petrey's not a dealbreaker for me though as he may be decent but unlikely to be much more given his age.

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  27. Gagner straight across should be the negotiation.

    "Come on, offensively our guy is tracking far better. Sure your guy has a wider range of skills, but Petry is a helluva premium to pay for that. Gags and two 2012 third rounders."

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  28. I loved the talking-to that Reed gave after the celebration as well. I had just finished telling my buddy that "Eskimos don't do that" when he asked if they would dance in the end zone. Perfect.

    I must admit that I am Albertan and will look the other way at some things and Tillman appears to be the real deal. Hugh Cambpell could have been caught molesting livestock in the sixties and I would still love the guy for the teams he helped put together.

    So far this years team is very easy to cheer for. They don't play dirty and they can dominate other teams at times.

    Right now I'm just hoping they don't have a giant collapse.

    I'm speaking ahead of myself but it appears to be a two teamed league again. You're going down, Cavillo!

    -
    Thanks for the link to the Redline chat, LT. I saw some quotes from it (likely from you) but hadn't seen the source. The parts on Klefbom were particularily encouraging.

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  29. I also wanted to ask...Was Stauffer saying that Cogliano wasn't moved to the wing because they had brought in better players? Does that sound kind of sketchy?

    distipsy - My comments tonight.

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  30. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  31. Gagner + Petry is an awful lot for Bogosian imo. I think Petry is going to end up being a very nice Dman down the road.

    Staright up for Gagner only in a heartbeat.

    Spoiler: I bet Columbus would be happy to give up Bogosian too. Chevaldayov might not be impressed tho.

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  32. Paging Hunter and Traktor....

    Sunday, July 17, 2011 12:23:00 AM MDT




    Why would you page me?

    MacT can't find a HC job in the NHL.

    Who knew?

    Sunday, July 17, 2011 12:37:00 AM MDT


    14 minutes.

    That's Batsignal like efficiency.

    If they do the Bogo deal without improving goaltending then I don't like it as much as I do if they improve goaltending.

    I'm not sure that in 3 years Petry isn't on equal footing with Bogo given how well Petry showed this year.

    Price seems steep, but I doubt you can sub in Plante for Petry. One can play in the NHL next year and the other isn't tracking to play another game in the NHL barring a fleet of injuries.

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  33. So maybe the stats guru's can explaint to me, who is he better player statistically?

    Bogo's Rel Corsi is a -8.8 (5th worst among Dfence on ATL) at evens but he has the second hardest quality of Comp and the 4th best teammates (among D). He started 47.9 of faceoffs in the O zone.

    Samwise has a Rel Corsi of +7.0 (4th best among forwards) but had the 7th hardest quality of Comp and 5th best teammates. (although is see JFJ and Fraser ahead of him in quality of team mates. WTF?) He had 50.9 % of his faceoffs in the O zone.

    Who is a better player just looking at last year?

    Bogosian is three years younger that Petry - maybe not such a bad trade when I note that.

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  34. Bogo's Rel Corsi is a -8.8 (5th worst among Dfence on ATL)

    Sorry, that should be 5th best.

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  35. Ducey: Here's how I look at these fellows.

    His zone start was tough and he ended in the offensive zone exactly as often as he started.

    He was 2nd in EV TOI among D, played the toughest available competition with middling teammates.

    I would expect--before looking at Corsi and plus minus--that he would have a poor CorsiRel and plus minus based on his role at that age.

    His -8.8 is pretty much in the range with the other Dmen not named Enstrom and Byfuglien.

    I'd be encouraged by his numbers based on age and role. I do wonder why Craig Ramsay rolled his pairings the way he did, though.

    Gagner is covered here:

    http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2011/04/sam-gagner-10-11-highway-61-revisited.html

    and I wouldn't trade Gagner for Bogosian straight up but that's just me.

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  36. That would be a horrible trade. I'd be hard pressed to trade Gagner (who's still not fully developed) for Bogo straight up.

    Petry has played well for us on both ends of the ice as a rookie, and given those red flags others have mentioned, it's not impossible that Petry could have a NHL better career than Bogosian

    All Bogo has going for him is first round hype. Ask Cam Barker how that all worked out.

    Also, if the MacT to the Wolves rumor is true, he'll fit in very well here in Chi-town. The Wolves are a first-class organization with a very loyal north suburban fanbase, who don't want to travel to the UC and pay the big bucks to see NHL games.

    With the Wolves affiliation changing to Van from Atl/Win, he'd have more talent on the ice to work with too.

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  37. Since the Jets have so many dollars committed on defense, I suppose they may be holding a non-binding quiet auction to assess interest, and decide what they want to do.

    Columbus is probably offering something like Brassard and Moore, right?

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  38. Given the potential of Bogo and the axiom of the team that gets the best player wins the trade then the Oilers would most likely come out on top for this one.

    Still, I don't like the addition of Petry to the deal.

    Though you'd be more inclined to make it if you had 100% faith in Marincin.

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  39. Chorney, Plante & Gagner

    for

    Bogo, 2nd and third round pick 2013


    I like the stacking of picks in 2013. Gives us a stack of picks over a year off (far sighted is not a word I use to describe most GMS). Paper the league with rfa offers with the cluster pointing in the right direction. (This is where you pick up the Andrew ladd type RFAs.

    Plante is a 1st rounder and Chorney a second so you are paying in pre draft value more.

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  40. It's one thing for Tambellini (and everyone else for that matter) to play the "we'll give him 9 games and send him to junior" tune on draft day and in the summer, but once the jersey goes on, and the hockey world gets to see him in training camp and preseason games, it's a totally different story. I highly doubt he goes back to junior this year, and find it unlikely they release him to play in the WJC even (though I think that has a better chance of happening than the former).

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  41. If your going to trade Gagner, its not now.

    He has 2 full game vet centres in front of him, pump him up this year and get something of more value.

    I doubt his cache is gone around the league, especially in the east where his speed would be less important than his skill.

    My opinion is the east would value his stockiness as 5'11" and 190-ish over lighter offensive guys. They also don't see him as much and may not know he struggles in traffic, and there is always the "he's only a kid" mantra and that he played on the Oilers.

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