Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Sail On, St. Michael's Buzzer


Cogliano to Anaheim for a 2nd rd pick in 2013.

The Oilers did have some options (as discussed below) for Cogliano in regard to 11-12; they could have moved him to the wing until Nugent-Hopkins made the roster (or failed to make the roster) but the major issue here is with regard to center and use this coming year.

The other issue with Cogliano is that he filed for arbitration. His reward could be significant compared to his salary last season and in seasons past, and I expect Anaheim will sign him before the hearing. The 2005 draft for the Oilers--the draft where they continued to select undersized skill players (Cogliano and Chorney at the top) has been passed by the drafts that followed.

Today's deal had to come. The return seems reasonable.

121 comments:

  1. I liked cogliano and think he got more criticism than he deserved. I wish him the best.

    On another note, anyone wanna buy an autographed Andrew Cogliano jersy?

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  2. Bob Murray clearly think's 2012 is going to be a strong draft if he is trading us a 2013 2nd. Good thing we have Khabby to keep us in the lottery this yeat

    Wish Cogs the best of luck. F=dreadful on faceoffs but a hard worker and good team player

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  3. Is Anaheim doing its best to become the Oilers, California Chapter?

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  4. We knew something had to give. Best of luck to Cogliano, but really, it came down to the point where he was expendable. A 2nd rounder is a fair return - another bullet for MBS.

    nonou - what Traktor yelled this morning when he found out that his favorite Oiler had been dealt away...

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  5. nonou - what Traktor yelled this morning when he found out that his favorite Oiler had been dealt away...

    Well, on the bright side it does open up more TOI for Horcoff

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  6. Crap, now I have to get a new number for my handle...

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  7. I don't like Cogliano much as a player, but this seems like an awful deal. He would provide more value to the Oilers from now to UFA than a 2nd in 2013 will provide to the core group they are building.

    Fuck MBS and his bullets. Especially in 2013.

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  8. I disagree with you Riv. Where was he gonna play? He has to get paid to play on the fourth line.

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  9. I'm a big believer in selling high, not low, but it just got to the point where Cogliano didn't really have a spot anymore. Still, there's a part of my brain that says that in a world where a late first round pick turns out to be an NHL player, when a lot of late first round picks don't, that he should command at least that much, if not more.

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  10. The other John: I think Murray is more aware of his team not being as good as their record last year indicated and waiting for his team to become a legitimate playoff team.

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  11. Value seems about right, though I'd be much happier to see a pick now head out in order to land Sekera or someone along those lines...

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  12. Does this mean Tambellini is done 'evaluating?'

    Cogliani was Steve Kelly redux. He just got more of a shot because the team was (is?) abysmal. The Prendergast era is looking worse by the minute. Love what this says about the Oiler org (a 2nd for MBS is a better pick than a 1st with Prendergast). That's progress I guess?

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  13. Rivers said: I don't like Cogliano much as a player, but this seems like an awful deal. He would provide more value to the Oilers from now to UFA than a 2nd in 2013 will provide to the core group they are building.

    I disagree. This move not only gives MBS another bullet, but it also provides ST with a far more liquid asset than Cogliano was as a player. It's like buying a car with cash versus trying to trade in your existing car. Like cash, the pick is easier to liquidate than a $1.5M player. Now, ST can trade a decent pick to a cap-strapped team for a player more easily than trying to peddle a warm body back.

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  14. RiversQ,

    Man, you are in a pissy mood lately, no?

    I think the deal is okay. Cogs could have been kept at a 4th line C or 3rd line winger position perhaps but his inability to win a faceoff, his lack of size, and the tsunami of prospects in the rear view made that unlikely.

    Its a choice between Cogs or one of RNH, Lander, Hamilton, or Hartikanen. Cogs could have held those guys off for a year tops.

    I still think he will follow the Matt Lombardi model and turn into a pretty good player someday, but the Oilers already have too many smurphs.

    A second rounder for a 3rd/4th liner is a fair return.

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  15. Random Optimistic Oiler fan: "Well, at least the Oilers' PK couldn't get any worse"

    Steve Tambellini: "Challenge accepted."

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  16. Mc79: They're paying Eager and Jones real money for the fourth line aren't they? Those guys stink to high heaven. They also can't PK or take on spot duty on the third line either. Cogliano made less than both of them last year.

    The worst part of the deal is that it's a pick in 2013. That player won't be worth talking about until 2016 and that's if the 5% chance of being a player comes through. That's a crummy return for this franchise unless you want to stockpile picks for the never-ending rebuild a la Atlanta or FLA or NYI.

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  17. Now at 49 contracts. Next announcement is signing Scott Hannan to 1yr/3.6M, right?

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  18. If Souray doesn't break his hand before the deadline a couple of years ago, could he and Cogs have been flipped for the pick that turned out to be Fowler?

    These things can drive you crazy.

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  19. Wow the organization is starting to do things that make sense. Id rather the Oilers move 2nds to add players but at 50 contracts you cant.

    If we start to believe that mgmt actually reads this blog, I think out next topics should be focused around signing Scott Hannan and then trading for one of Schneider, Raask or Bernier ;)

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  20. Love what this says about the Oiler org (a 2nd for MBS is a better pick than a 1st with Prendergast). That's progress I guess?

    Ha ha ha. This is priceless. In terms of probability, an Oilers' 2nd today probably is as good as a 1st rounder in Prendergast's day anyway. Back then the Oilers drafted in the 20s in the 1st round and now they draft at 31 all the time anyway.

    I hate what that says about this organization. It says they suck hard.

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  21. My hope is that this means they are committed to keeping Gagner and it was and either/or. I think it is a fair return and he was never going to have a value contract on the Oilers or increase his value where he was playing. Basically they signed Belanger and traded who he was upgrading for the 2nd.

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  22. The trade is less than ideal but the value is fair considering the circumstances.

    It seems that Cogliano would have likely proceeded to arbitration. Arbitration would then result in two possible scenarios.

    The first is that Cogliano receives a contract with a cap hit of less than 1.5 million dollars. The Oilers are forced to take the contract (which I'm sure they wouldn't mind at that price tag), but they are also forced to take a player who has gone through the infamous arbitration process. Cogliano would surely be unhappy with the evaluation of his worth and the organization's representations to an arbitrator regarding his worth. This situation is less than ideal.

    The second possible outcome is that Cogliano is awarded a contract with value greater than 1.5 million, similar to Gilbert Brule. Brule is no doubt the comparable that Cogliano's camp would advance, as he put up similar numbers to Cogliano over a smaller period of time and with a much worse health record. I doubt the Oilers or the fans (read: us) would be pleased with paying Cogliano 1.85+ to play on the fourth line and, quite frankly, he would not do well in that role. The Oilers would walk away from that arbitration award and receive no compensation.

    It's a situation where there is no winning outcome, merely an outcome mitigating losses.

    I won't fault Tambellini for this decision.

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  23. I hate what that says about this organization. It says they suck hard.

    The light at the end of the tunnel is the front of an oncoming train?

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  24. I agree with Ranfordforlife adn Slopitch.

    This deal makes sense. But, rather than sign Hannan I would like to see them trade their 2012 2nd and maybe a prospect for a decent top 4D from a team with extra.

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  25. Looking at capgeek this deal makes even more sense, as the Oilers could save about $1M by playing Lander or Hartki in place of Cogs.

    I don't think this team is any better with Cogs in the lineup over one of those guys.

    If RNH makes the team, our cap space is only about $4M and if we still want to add a D and a G, we will need every bit of that...

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  26. I think it's fair value - you weren't going to get a first for Cogliano.

    RiversQ has a good point - we're paying Jones similar money. On that end, you could argue Cogliano would be a better option. This is the same management that preferred Brule over Cogliano a year ago, and look at how that turned out.

    Of course the flip side is opportunity costs of keeping Cogliano - losing at-bats to players who may be more useful. And as mentioned in this thread, the 2nd rounder is a more liquid asset, and could possibly be used as a trade throw-in or used at the deadline.

    I'm not upset at this move. Cogliano was given opportunity to succeed - he didn't bring enough offense despite top 6 minutes, and was not responsible defensively to play in the bottom 6. He had to go, and perhaps the Oilers made the right decision before his value sunk lower.

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  27. Fuck. There goes my Oilers white #13 jersey.

    Happy trails, Andrew.

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  28. This trade has probably been available for awhile. It most likely signals that Gagner+ for a D is not happening.

    Cogs was not hard done by this last year, but never given the primo spots to succeed either. There's only so many of those spots available. Selling low is one of the issues with tanking and as has been mentioned ,his playing time this year probably would drop his value lower.

    I don't foresee him being an Oiler killer, but his skills and work ethic point to a nice long career - all the best to him and hopefully he'll get some better opportunities down the road.

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  29. @ Itsaleaf

    I am willing to negotiate.

    @ others

    I am with RIversQ here. I dont like this trade. OK cogs had to go, but could we have gotten something better in return? Couldnt we have made a better trade invovling more players to address some needs on the roster?

    this is a w/e trade and not a win.

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  30. With all the skill on the team, and the lack of size, Jones appears more valuable to Cogliano because he provides stuff not found elsewhere in the line up (lack of skating and passing), where the stuff Cogliano does is already replicated (lack of face-offs, defensive awareness, size).

    With Lander and RNH in the org it was going to be difficult to find a role or even minutes for Cogliano over the next 3 years. His value would decline as his role did. Better to make the move now.

    The few games I have seen Cogliano at the wing, he scares me in a Patrick O'Sullivan way. Just doesn't seem to have the toughness to play hard along the walls. I don't think moving him to wing was a great option, and it has been resisted by the player every step of the way.

    As for the return, the Oilogosphere because of their magic bean math, undervalue draft picks in comparison to NHL GMs. As an example, consider the Penner deal... Everyone was originally pissed at the return yet it is quite obvious now that Lombardi thinks he got took.

    If he was 5 picks of a 2nd when he was taken and really hasn't covered his draft bet, I'm totally okay with being paid a 2nd to essentially open up a contract slot.

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  31. That last para should read: He was 5 picks off a 2nd rounder...

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  32. First of all Cogliano was very effective on the PK. Much more than anyone else on the roster.

    Secondly, even though Jones has size, Cogliano played a more gritty game than Jones. Jones was a scoring chance sinkhole. And while I dont mind him on the 4th line winger role who can PK. I would much rather have Cogliano doing it. Also there is a more than decent chance that neither Lander not RNH make the team after TC and we could have played cogliano.
    As RiversQ said it, the pick in 2013 wont even have an inpact until 2018 that is if it is a successful pick. So we traded a useful player for a maybe useful player 7 years from now.
    It it were a 2,3 assets for a superior player deal, then it would have been ok. But Cogliano for a 2nd rounder in 2013 is not a good trade

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  33. Jeff Marek reporting the Oilers are looking at moving another centre.

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  34. I always hated the missions where your wet hardpoints were festooned with fuel tanks. Best missions were burner, burner, burner, alpha mike foxtrot, then a Martin-Baker short-cut back to the flight deck. None of this #13 for a 2013. That's soooo desk-job.

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  35. What would you rather have?

    Heatley

    or

    ANA 2013 second, LA 2012 third, Teubert, Kelfbom, and Smid

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  36. There is a part of me that thinks that Cogs is going to go elsewhere and really be the player he can be.

    Then there is the part of me that thinks that Cogs has intangibles that work against him and that he will carry those with him.

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  37. Cogliano gritty? Bwahahaha!

    Couldnt we have made a better trade invovling more players to address some needs on the roster?


    No. Or obviously they would have made it. And arb was a ticking clock.

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  38. What would you rather have?

    Heatley

    or

    ANA 2013 second, LA 2012 third, Teubert, Kelfbom, and Smid



    Cogliano, Tyler Myers, and a couple of scrubs.

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  39. Cogliano was unwilling to change his first name to Ryan. He was doomed from that day on.

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  40. Tencer reporting Oilers had choice of 2012 or 2013 and took the 2013 pick.

    That seem asinine to anyone else?

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  41. tencer tweets:

    2nd rd pick in 2013 was by oilers choice. Spacing apart development of players was one reason.

    [from Tambo]

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  42. And while I dont mind him on the 4th line winger role who can PK. I would much rather have Cogliano doing it.

    Wouldn't having Cogs at ~$1.5 million as a 4th line PK for 2011-2012 just have reduced his value further?

    This was the time to move him - while he is still cheap and coming off a year where he played in a wide range of roles.

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  43. That seem asinine to anyone else?

    Not to me... In Stu we trust.

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  44. Justin Bourne via twitter with some great one liners about Cogs faceoff skills:

    Reading Puck Daddy's piece on the Cogliano trade. Dude won 41.6% of his faceoffs. A guy like Patrice Bergeron betters that w/ a pool noodle.

    I mean, they continued to let him take draws after sniffing out that pattern of failure? Malhotra wins that many with a broom.

    Dougie2k responds with:

    Craig MacTavish could've come out in dress shoes and won that many with the butt end of his stick.

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  45. We just traded Todd Marchant minus the faceoff talents? Under similar circumstances? Oh damn.

    The moaning over waiting 3-5 years for the return on the pick garnered is laughable. I guess the only way one can employ a second round pick is to draft a player with it.

    Also pretty amazing how some can go on and on about a $300k overspend for a 3 - 4 liner bemoaning lack of contribution when that is exactly what would have happened with Cogliano. The player was redundant and the lineup behind him showed more promise.

    I really don't see the problem unless some people don't like the fact that the Oilers have a little depth now.

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  46. http://online.wsj.com/dr/2011/07/12/a-stadiums-costly-legacy-throws-taxpayers-for-a-loss/

    God bless America: earmarking a holographic scoreboard while shutting down a program for troubled adolescents.

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  47. @ Spoiler

    If you think Jones is more valuable than Cogs then we have nothing to talk about. Good for you. 0

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  48. Better a future 2nd round pick than a handful of bugger-all after the arbitration hearing.

    They Oilers bviously didn't place enough value in him to pay him whatever the award was going to be...whether they were right or not is another debate.

    He is good enough to play somewhere, in the right situation, surely. He just couldn't seem to make a difference here. He will probably score a couple of OT winners against the Oilers this season...

    My word verifications is angst.

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  49. So because of the Belanger signing, the Oilers basically gain Belanger and a 2nd for Cogliano. Not bad. Though will Belanger be around when Edmonton is a contender?

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  50. SumOil

    Thank god we have nothing to talk about. Nothing could make me happier.

    Now go read my posts again. Read them four times very slowly until you are certain you understand every word, phrase, sentence, nuance and idea.

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  51. hoil said...

    Better a future 2nd round pick than a handful of bugger-all after the arbitration hearing.


    Exactly.

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  52. Will Belanger be around when the Oilers are winning? Hopefully his faceoff prowess will rub off on some eager young guns. That's an Oatsian legacy that this team needs.

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  53. Belanger, and Smyth, for that matter, are here to make sure the kids are not counted on for too much, too soon. Whether they are here in a few years is irrelevant so long as the kids progress and develop like we all hope they do.

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  54. In read it and you said Jones is move valuable to the Oilers than cogliano because of the no duplication of skills blah blah.
    But with coming in of Hall, Smyth and Eager, those skills are duplicated too.
    If you think Jones is a better goalscorer, then look at his sh% spike. Of you think Jones is a better player, then look at his scoring chances. plus Cogliano is a better penalty killer and maybe a better skater.
    So #1. What Jones provides is duplicated in the line-up and failry well too.
    #2 Ok i thought Cogliano was ahead in hits and I accept my mistake. I thought Cogs was pretty gritty in his play and did not unncessarily fall down 2-3 times a game.
    hockey player than Ryan Jones and if the choice has to be made between one or the other it must always be Cogliano. He can easily take over Jones 4th line spot and it will be an upgrade.

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  55. Even strength:

    Goals/60
    1.11 Hemmer (1st)
    1.04 Jones (2nd)
    .80 Hall (3rd)
    .50 Cogs (11th)

    Pts/60
    1.38 Jones (8th)
    1.33 Cogs (10th)

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  56. I'm not sure why having one bad contract (Jones) necessitates a second (Cogliano) or replacing that first bad contract with another.

    The fact they are probably overvaluing Jones shouldn't influence one's decision as to whether Cogs is worth keeping going forward.

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  57. Don't like the move b/c it forces a less experienced player into the lineup. Just when it looks like they have some depth they piss (some of) it away.

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  58. on ice sh%

    Ryan Jones 8.05
    Andrew Cogliano 6.93

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  59. No one has said it yet, but it looks like the ducks also think Cogs resembles ol Todd Marchant.. bringing him in as a replacement!?..

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  60. Cogs leaving is like dumping an ex: can't wait for it to happen, but sorta sucks when it does. Good luck Cogs.

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  61. Pretty stupid to opt for a 2013 pick instead of a 2012.

    Tambellini could have traded that pick at the 2012 draft for a 2013 pick. Teams almost always overpay on the draft floor. Probably could have turned it into a 2013 2nd and a 2013 4th.

    There's also a chance that the Ducks have a poor season and that 2012 pick is in the top 40. Perhaps there is a player in the top 40 that Edmonton wouldn't have expected to be there.

    I understand the point of staggering prospects but to opt for the 2013 pick proves what a complete idiot Tambo is. Could have always done it at a later time.

    As for the trade.. pretty much expected. The main thing I'm disappointed in is that it looks like we're going to keep Sam Gagner.

    I'm of the opinion that he doesn't help win games and never will. He doesn't PK, he doesn't win draws, he has no physical play and has no agitating skills like a David Bolland. Gagner is the definition of 1 dimensional player. The worst thing is he doesn't complement RNH in any way.

    You can make up excuses for the kid but the bottom line is Gagner ranked DEAD LAST in the NHL in terms of GA/60.

    Buddy is a liability, with zero intangibles with 60 point upside. Those are the type of players coaches need to move mountains in order for them to be successful.

    Not saying Cogs is a stud but Gagner has zero place on this club moving forward and Tambo decided to move the guy with less value. Typical Tambo. Ultra conservative GM that is afraid to make mistakes.

    Blah

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  62. Traktor doesn't like the trade, so it must be a good one.

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  63. "Traktor doesn't like the trade, so it must be a good one."

    Good one. Luz hahah har har Horcoff top 15 center!1!11

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  64. Gagner had an on ice save% of ,875.

    Had he gotten league average.

    When he was on ice the Oilers allowed 477 shots on goal.

    If you major it to league average goaltending (,915) it comes to 40 GA.

    Sam would have finished +4.

    His GA/60 would have dropped down to 2,51.

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  65. Not saying Cogs is a stud but Gagner has zero place on this club moving forward and Tambo decided to move the guy with less value. Typical Tambo. Ultra conservative GM that is afraid to make mistakes.

    Traktor,
    Did it occur to you that Cogs is being moved to make room for the Lander/ VDV/ House/ Pitlick crowd whereas Gagner may get shipped when RNH gains his footing? Trading Cogs doesn't prevent a trade of Gagner at the deadline or this time next year.

    Plus, you have failed to mention one benefit of the Cogs trade - more icetime for Horcoff!

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  66. As for the ''Save% on ice is bad defense thing''

    Guess how many players were top 10 worst more than 1 times?

    1. Filip Kuba. That's it.

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  67. "Gagner had an on ice save% of ,875."

    Probably because he's one of the worst defensive centers in the league. There's a reason why no Oiler coach trusts him on the PK.

    "Had he gotten league average."

    If you played in Gagner's spot what do you think your on ice save% would have been? Would it be the goalies fault that you suck?

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  68. other than his obvious obsessive bias against certain topics/players, I find Traktor to have a fairly astute view and observation on a lot of matters. His delivery and bedside manner sometimes leave much to be desired, but the critical thinking is there. he's eons ahead of our resident troll, and an obtuse doppelganger of the heralded RiversQ. (minus the outright contempt)

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  69. Traktor: Read above.

    When you jump to top 20 it only adds Kovalchuk.

    Gagner's past SV%:

    ,901
    ,924
    ,900

    Heh.

    I guess guys like Brandon Dubinsky are defensive garbage to find themselves in the bottom 20.

    Well no because guess what:

    It isn't sustainable.

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  70. Jones will not sulk in his role, wherever Renney puts him, even if its in the pressbox.

    The same would not be true for Cogliano. He would sulk as a 4th liner, or being pressboxed. And with the diminished role, his trade value would have been eviscerated.

    He will be a top nine forward in Anaheim.

    The Oilers didn't themselves and Cogliano a favor, but doing the right thing at almost the right time (a year ago would have been better).

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  71. By no means do i think gagner is safe. The writing is on the wall for him too. Even he doesnt fit at centeranymore. Lander RNH are going to be there sooner rather than later.

    Gagner will be traded or moved to RW. The decision coming is between hemsky/Gagner/Omark. If hemmer is moved for D help then its clear they feel Omark and Gagner are capable of providing enough offense.

    If Hemsky re-signs, one of the other two have to go.

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  72. What if it's a one and gone for Smyth?

    Doesn't that open up a space?

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  73. Best part of the deal is the open roster spot. Tambi isn't done.

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  74. From HF:

    For the record, here are the last 3 centres who finished at the bottom of that category:

    07/08: Vincent Lecavalier
    08/09: Brad Richards
    09/10: Evgeni Malkin

    Sam Gagner had some decent company this past year. John Tavares, Matt Duchene, Eric Staal and Jason Spezza. What a bunch of scrubs
    .

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  75. FPB

    Valid point, but theres still hartikainen and the other kids coming too.

    Who knows...for once, its nice to have options

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  76. Best part of the deal is the open roster spot. Tambi isn't done.

    If you believe Tambo, he said today that he's content with the team they have today, though they do want to add another #3 goalie.

    We need another top 4 defenceman and help in goal to make the playoffs.

    Which is why the status quo will be problematic.

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  77. Itsaleaf: Yeah well their's also deception and injuries.

    Maybe Hemsky gets broken again.

    I say at least one of Omark/Hall/Eberle/Paajarvi bum out.

    At best, we just have a shitload of kids to trade for help on defense.

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  78. yeah, we don't need to make the playoffs.

    Just pick 6-10.

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  79. Punjabi Oil: The Oilers also said that fans shouldn't expect them to be very active on July 1.

    Tambellini may be telling the truth, or he may simply be covering his ass if he's trying to make further trades/signings but the deals don't work out.

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  80. "Traktor: Read above.

    Gagner's past SV%:

    ,901
    ,924
    ,900

    Heh."

    -21
    -1
    -8
    -17

    "It isn't sustainable."

    Looks pretty consistent to me.

    Career -47

    Its Omark's fault that Gagner skates like Strudwick though.

    Its MPS's fault that Ryan Muffin Smyth has a better shot than Gagner though.

    And of course, it HAS to be Ryan O'marra's fault that Gagner losses 75% of 50/50 battles.

    As for Gagner's inability to win draws, that's Cogs fault.

    Whose fault is it that Gagner can't hold onto the puck? Totally JDD's fault.

    NK is to blame for Gagner's inability to match up against bigger players or clear the blue paint during scrambles.

    Other than that, we're looking at Bobby Clarke.

    Sorry but I've heard it all before re: puck luck with Patrick O'Sullivan

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  81. ,901
    ,924
    ,900

    Career average: ,909

    Heh

    Projected +-: 1
    -1
    -8
    -17

    Steady progression. And he's only been lucky once.

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  82. Perhaps Traktor would have been happier if it had been Gagner going for a 2nd instead of Cogs?

    The return is about what to expect for someone who was chosen 25th and was struggling to find his way on the 30th place club. His boxcars had gone in the wrong direction, his underlying numbers did not show that he was ready to break into a 1 or 2C role and he can't win a faceoff.

    If the arbitration award had gone against the Oilers, you risk losing him and the years spent developing him for nothing. That's bad asset management.

    There was no room for him on the roster (unless you have a reash of injuries) and right now,

    Traktor: Your one argument on when you take the pick has merit but I'll take the other side of the coin.

    If Selanne comes back and Hiller bounces back from vertigo, Anaheim will at least compete for a playoff spot and who knows, a little improvement on the blueline and they can have a deep playoff run next season. Now that 2nd round pick next season is even worse.

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  83. Btw. Guess who were 5th and 9th last year?

    Crosby and Malkin.

    What terrible players.

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  84. "For the record, here are the last 3 centres who finished at the bottom of that category:

    07/08: Vincent Lecavalier
    08/09: Brad Richards
    09/10: Evgeni Malkin"

    Lecavalier career high: 108 points
    Richards career high: 91 points
    Malkin career high: 117 points
    Gagner caeer high: 49 points

    Good one

    Gagner is a 15 home run hitter that strikes out more than Adam Dunn.

    Difference is Malkin, Richards and Vinny flirt with 50 homers.

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  85. If you think Jones is more valuable than Cogs then we have nothing to talk about. Good for you.

    Neither player can be judged on the basis of playoff performance. I think Jones may prove to be the better gamer in that setting.

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  86. I can't believe how quickly many of the posters here are clamoring to rid ourselves of players. Lander shows up to development camp and is lauded by Steve Serdachny, and all of a sudden he is a sure-fire 2C ready to replace Gagner. Meanwhile, Gagner is being lamb-basted and shipped out of town because he failed to post 60+ points as a 21 year old playing on the worst team in the NHL for the 2nd year running.

    The gushing over two kids who have never played an NHL game needs to be tempered. They're both legit prospects, and RNH is as sure-fire as it gets, but lets not forget that Lander has never played a pro game in North America. Throttle-back on making room for him on the roster until he forces himself onto it. Realistically, unless he's gifted the 4C spot, that time is more than a year down the road...

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  87. Meanwhile, Gagner is being lamb-basted and shipped out of town because he failed to post 60+ points as a 21 year old playing on the worst team in the NHL for the 2nd year running.

    Agree with you that further patience needs to be exercised with Gagner, but that said, this seems to be setting up as his make-or-break year ala Cogliano last year. If he flatlines or worse, trends downward in his boxcars this year, I gotta think the org sours on him in a hurry with RNH waiting in the wings for next season. The very fact RNH was drafted over another glaring need at defense has to be a wakeup call for Gagner. Bet Samwise comes to camp this year in the best shape of his life unless he actively wants out of town?

    I'm cautiously optimistic this will be his breakout year and he'll finally resemble the pretty damn good player he was at the end of his junior career.

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  88. I like the return in that it's a post-dated draft pick. I've often wondered if GMs were restricted from trading picks that were too far in the future (Basically, if Mike Milbury never did it, was it because you aren't allowed? "I'll send you my 2 first rounders in 2014 and 2021 for Blake Wheeler"). A gambling GM with a little foresight could really steal a trade this way, if he can loosely predict where a team is likely to finish in a couple of years based on their organizational projection. For instance, I'd love to have Calgary's 1st rounder two years from now. I think also, there'd be a little more willingness in some GMs to deal away those picks as they are far enough in the future to be seen as having less value, or the GM thinks "I won't be around here then, so why the heck not?". I also like that Tambellini saw that they were creating a bit of a logjam in prospects and spacing them out will help the organization manage their talent. That being said, sorry to see Cogs go, we've had too few of his character over the last few years. Then again, does this mean we never have to see that lockerroom photo of he, Souray, and Moreau ever again?

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  89. Traktor: You also compared him to guys who aren't 22 years old.

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  90. For as long as Samwise is an Oiler, RNH will challenge him. This is a good thing.

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  91. For as long as Samwise is an Oiler, RNH will challenge him. This is a good thing.

    If RNH doesn't blow past him in two seasons or less then McGregor made a bad choice from the best loser slot.

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  92. First of all Cogliano was very effective on the PK. Much more than anyone else on the roster.

    4 Oiler forwards averaged over 1.5min/60 on the PK.

    Here are their GAON/60 4v5:

    Reddox 8.01
    Cogliano 7.57
    Jones 7.09
    Fraser 6.37

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  93. Lecavalier at 21: 23G 28A 51 Pts
    and a Career -70

    Richards at 21: 21G 41A 62Pts -10

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  94. Lots of noise in Traktors post, but he's bang fucking on about the 2012 vs 2013 pick. Unbelievably stupid.

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  95. Cogliano and Reddox also spent more time against #1PP units. Most teams' 3rd and 4th leading forwards in SHTOI/G have much better 4v5 GA/60 than the ones who are 1 annd 2 in PK icetime for that reason.

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  96. Cogliano and Reddox also spent more time against #1PP units. Most teams' 3rd and 4th leading forwards in SHTOI/G have much better 4v5 GA/60 than the ones who are 1 annd 2 in PK icetime for that reason.

    Cogs was 2nd/60, but really close with Fraser.

    Reddox 2.89
    Cogliano 2.61
    Fraser 2.53
    Jones 2.09

    Agreed that deferring a draft pick AWAY from what is called the deepest draft since 2003 is brutally stupid.

    Anaheim doesn't look great on paper and if Hillier still has vertigo, that pick could be in the 30's next year. Especially if Teemu the Great hangs them up.

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  97. This draft depth thing is getting silly.

    This year was supposed to be notoriously poor, and by the numbers it's the deepest since 2003.

    1 Year is a long time, and a shitload of players go up and down.

    Sure it looks good because of Yakupov and Golchenyuk, but that's only the top guys.

    The 2nd round forms in the 2nd half of the season.

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  98. Buddy has four NHL seasons under his belt and still doesn't know what to do in either end of the ice. Bon Fucking Voyage.

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  99. Trying to understand why the 2012 pick would be better than the 2013 pick, but not seeing it. Rich said it best: If Selanne comes back and Hiller bounces back from vertigo, Anaheim will at least compete for a playoff spot and who knows, a little improvement on the blueline and they can have a deep playoff run next season. Now that 2nd round pick next season is even worse.

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  100. Lots of noise in Traktors post, but he's bang fucking on about the 2012 vs 2013 pick. Unbelievably stupid.

    I guess they must be worried about the 50 contract limit. They will need contracts soon for some of Martindale, Blain, Bigos, Pelss, Bunz plus some of the 2011 class. (Although this doesn't get any better going forward and the logjam can be mitigated by taking a few college boys.)

    Maybe they anticipate some change in the CBA or think they might do an offer sheet in the summer of 2012 and want to have a draft pick in the second round still?

    Or maybe they are just too smart by half.

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  101. Does anyone know the value of the 2012 versus 2013 draft? I know the top end in 2012 is supposed to be good, but would doubt if even NHL teams had a strong understanding of depth comparison, etc.

    Right? I mean, are we seriously arguing the depth of these drafts with authority?

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  102. Right? I mean, are we seriously arguing the depth of these drafts with authority?

    Well I certainly don't argue anything with authority.

    I argue without authority.

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  103. WG: Made a scene in my head.

    Employees sitting in the pause room

    WG: ''Now let's get back to work''

    Random Employee: ''Fuck that''

    WG: ''okay''

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  104. ok, so they take a draft pick in 2013 instead of 2012. What if perhaps, this is just saving the asset for a later time when perhaps we might not have as many young D that are closer to being NHL-ready?

    Saving it for later if you will - instead of getting a 2nd round pick in a supposedly good draft d-wise, you save it for later. What's the big deal?

    Besides, as LT says, how can we argue that the draft in 2012 is any better than the one in 2013? Who knows?

    I'm happy Cogliano is gone. 2nd round is better than nothing.

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  105. I'm disappointed in the return, since it's rumored that the Oilers were looking for a first rounder for next year.

    Was it worth selling him low (which it is, a second rounder in 2 years) to avoid a hearing? I don't think so.

    The only way this is worth it, is if the Oilers spend the savings on a defenseman or goalie.

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  106. Right? I mean, are we seriously arguing the depth of these drafts with authority?

    LT- it's July, I am surprised that we aren't arguing about the secret alien codes in Oiler press releases.

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  107. Cogs was 2nd/60, but really close with Fraser.

    Reddox 2.89
    Cogliano 2.61
    Fraser 2.53
    Jones 2.09


    Per game, they're pretty close, but Cogliano had over 45 minutes more powerplay time over the season, and Reddox only played half the year. From the time Reddox arrived, the #1PK unit was 85/13. If Fraser spent any real time on the top unit, it would've been early in the year, and most likely with Cogliano for a lot of it.

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  108. I don't get it. What's the rush?

    The goal should be to improve a little, stay healthier, devolop the kids, get value from the veterans, ala rebuild 2nd year.

    Can't believe how many are banging the playoff drum.

    This is not a playoff team, it's a rebuild. Cogs isn't in the plans.

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  109. Considering how it took most of today's better shut-down centers to become successful in that role, I'd almost say keeping Cogliano would've been better for the rebuild than trading him for picks or to create a roster spot for yet another rookie.

    Unless the goal of the rebuild isn't to compete for another 8 years.

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  110. FPB,

    You are way closer to the truth than you think.

    misfit,

    Agreed, good point.

    On the bright side 3 of the 4 top 4 minute men on the worst PK in the league are gone.

    Now if they can just knee cap Mr. 4v5 .815 SV%, they might have a PK.

    Khabby was 49th in the league in 4v5 SV% among goalies who played at least 20 games. (He was 62nd if you count every goalie who played at least 10 games.)

    DD was tied for 14th among goalies with 20+ games with a 4v5 SV% of .889. He was tied with Thomas and Fleury. Not terrible company.

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  111. If Souray doesn't break his hand before the deadline a couple of years ago, could he and Cogs have been flipped for the pick that turned out to be Fowler?.

    No, but you could say there was a really, really, really good chance that Cogliano and Souray were going to the Rangers. In fact, going to the Rangers the day that it was discovered that Souray was in the hospital with an infection.

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  112. With all the skill on the team, and the lack of size, Jones appears more valuable to Cogliano because he provides stuff not found elsewhere in the line up (lack of skating and passing), where the stuff Cogliano does is already replicated (lack of face-offs, defensive awareness, size).

    I don't understand how you go from this brilliant to this:

    As for the return, the Oilogosphere because of their magic bean math, undervalue draft picks in comparison to NHL GMs.

    So the people who value draft picks for the exact value they have undervalue them in comparison to a group of people who all think they can beat the average value of the pick?

    Think about this for a day or two and get back to us.

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  113. Traktor, do you actually watch players play the game of hockey, or do you go into a dark room, light candles, choose a player to burn in effigy, then chant in the tongue of Mordor as you meditate with the black spirits on what horrific things you could say about them?

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  114. The stats show that a 2nd round pick is essentially giving a player away for pennies on the dollar. That offends me.

    It represents an NHL player and first round pick swirling down the bowl. It's a loss for the org, created through poor management of Cogliano and contracts. I don't think max value was received, partly due to the timing of the trade, which I also feel about the Penner deal.

    If you don't want a player, keep an ear to the ground and when someone brainfarts or manages themselves into a corner (like ST has done in this case), deal them. We have seen enough examples of getting a lot for little lately. That of course would involve an active long term plan.

    It would also involve astute assessments in the short term to decide if a player is a fit and has the right tool bag, and an understanding of what the team should be that does not change every 18 months.

    To me there is a difference between development time, and guys that don't have enough to offer to be difference makers regularly, which should be the goal.

    The Cleary's and St. Louis' aren't players that you should try to develop, they are players you acquire after they have spent a decade developing and have found their thing in the league.

    The reason being for that every late bloomer, there's probably a few thousand that fail, not good enough odds for me, sort of like a second rounder for an actual player.

    However, it is likely GM's value that pick more than they should, so I agree with ranford4life that it is a more liquid asset for ST, and I hope he evens things out down the road.

    As for keeping Jones over Cogs, isn't it better to keep the best hockey players? Especially when the cap isn't an issue? Jones is bigger, but I agree less gritty and so amazingly one dimensional and similar looking to Andrew WK that I can't take it.

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